Wow Canada - the Liberal Reversal and the Singularity of Canadian Politics

Illustration by Will Allen/Europinion

But a month ago, the cause of the Liberal Party of Canada seemed lost. Today, the reality is completely different. Fresh leadership, promoted by Trudeau’s successor as Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, has given the Liberals the renewal they needed to make up what was at the beginning of the year a 23 point deficit to the Conservatives. Carney, who previously served as Governor of the Banks of Canada (2008-2013) and England (2013-2020), became the preferred choice in the Liberals' internal election to replace Justin Trudeau. The new Liberal leader arrives with overwhelming popularity in the national executive branch, positioning himself as a figure who radiates certainty and strength in the face of tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. The renewal of the party's leadership is a clear lesson that other political parties should reflect on, in order to break the profound impasse they have found themselves in with their own stale and worn out leaderships.

With the Justin Trudeau era now over after nearly 10 years in power, the Liberal Party has managed to revolutionise its identity with little more than a change of leadership. The parties currently in the opposition - the Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party (NDP), and the Bloc Québécois (BQ) - are led by individuals who hoped to compete against Trudeau in October of this year and who, faced with a new figure in the ruling party, do not represent a truly competitive alternative. Two of these opposition leaders had already competed in the 2019 and 2021 general elections: Jagmeet Singh (NDP) and Yves-François Blanchet (BQ). Their continued presence at the helm of their respective political forces could have the same effect the Liberals feared had they retained Trudeau as their candidate.

For the Conservatives, the reflection should be deeper, as, as the second-largest political force in the country, their change of course would be much more arduous. Leader, Pierre Poilievre (2022 - present), who at 45 is the youngest of the current party leaders, embraces a somewhat populist conservatism that may not be the ideal alternative to Carney in the general election. Poilievre is undoubtedly more conservative than his two predecessors who competed in 2019 (Andrew Scheer) and 2021 (Erin O'Toole) against Trudeau, who, as already mentioned, is out of the electoral equation. A change of discourse seems essential to avoid being seen as a rigid candidate who cannot adapt to changes in the electoral landscape. It may seem exaggerated and even unthinkable for the Conservatives to change their leader when he hasn't competed in a general election. However, nothing should be ruled out, considering their lead in the vote preference has evaporated, leaving them behind the Liberals.

Having expected an October election, these challengers have been so blindsided as to further dissipate the Liberals' previous disadvantage. They now have an advantage over the other parties, proving to the public that this party knows how to not only close ranks in times of crisis (something which had been in doubt after the tumult of Trudeau’s second term), but also how to take into account national sentiment. If they manage to return to a majority this year, the Liberal Party could hold power for 14 years by the end of the next legislative term (2029). It would be the Liberals' longest period in power since the governments of Lester B. Pearson and Pierre Trudeau, which lasted from 1963 to 1979. Still, anything can happen.

Illustration. by Will Allen/Europinion

Canadian politics are fascinating. The sober, non-partisan political ethos of its citizenry should be the envy of all democracies. Its moderate multiparty system and concomitant stability make Canada a model of functional democracy, which has so far relegated the reactionary and radical rhetoric of its ideological extremes from entering parliament (as is the case with the far-right People's Party of Canada). Hopefully the upcoming election will be no exception, given both the country’s demographic and housing crises and the challenges it faces from its ever more bellicose southern neighbour.