Will Europe Abandon America for China in the Space Race?

Trump has refashioned domestic and international politics. The U.S. is aggressively leveraging tariffs against both adversaries and allies, openly disregarding international norms in its pursuit of natural resources, and finding smoother diplomatic ground with Russia than with European leaders. The common thread in these new strategies is the uncertainty they create in nearly every area of cooperation, including space exploration. While space policy may not dominate political discussions like economic and defense matters, continued unpredictability from Washington could well push Europe into the arms of others, such as a China ascendant in space exploration as in so much else.

Since President Donald Trump’s victory late last year, NASA’s strategic priorities have undergone a significant shift, with a renewed focus on Mars exploration at the expense of lunar missions and space research. This transition has raised concerns about the future of international space collaboration, particularly in Europe. Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has publicly advocated for the early decommissioning of the International Space Station (ISS), arguing that it has served its purpose and that resources should instead be directed toward Mars. Given that SpaceX is responsible for developing the ISS deorbit vehicle and plays a key role in its supply missions, Musk’s stance has added uncertainty to the station’s longevity. NASA had previously planned to keep the ISS operational until 2030, citing its importance for scientific research and training for future crewed Moon and Mars missions. An accelerated deorbiting would mark a major loss for the global space community, particularly Europe, which is entirely reliant on the ISS for research and astronaut training.

Simultaneously, Washington has prioritized national security in space, with increased funding for space-based missile defense systems and a reevaluation of relevant arms treaties and projects. Among the programmes at risk is NASA’s Artemis Moon program, which aims to establish a sustainable human presence on the Moon. Central to Artemis is the Space Launch System (SLS), a heavy-lift rocket developed by Boeing and Northrop Grumman, which  faces potential cancellation or restructuring due to persistent delays and budget overruns. Musk has proposed reallocating resources toward Mars exploration, advocating for SpaceX’s Starship as a more cost-effective alternative for lunar missions, though in 2024 it faced a 50% underperformance.

The possible cancellation of the SLS would have significant repercussions for Europe. The European Space Agency (ESA) has been a key partner in Artemis, contributing critical technology and infrastructure, including participation in the Lunar Gateway project. A U.S. withdrawal from lunar missions would force Europe to totally recalibrate its long-term space strategy. Additionally, European space access is already heavily reliant on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets due to decades-long lethargy in developing indigenous launch systems. The retirement of the Ariane 5 rocket in 2023 and setbacks with the Ariane 6, coupled with the grounding of the Vega-C rocket, have left Europe without a reliable launch vehicle. This dependence on SpaceX has prompted debate within Europe about the need to bolster independent launch capabilities to maintain strategic autonomy.

As Europe is buffeted by a nativist America, China has emerged as a potentially more reliable partner. China’s space sector is rapidly advancing, with a fleet of reusable launch vehicles and state-backed rockets nearing operational status. These systems offer capabilities comparable to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, and China has expressed willingness to accommodate international payloads. While China remains barred from participating in the ISS due to U.S. restrictions, China’s Tiangong Space Station presents an alternative destination for European astronauts. The ESA and China Manned Space Agency have already engaged in joint astronaut training in the past, laying the groundwork for potential future collaboration.

Moreover, Europe and China have a history of scientific cooperation in space. The ESA contributed key instruments to China’s Chang’e lunar missions, which successfully returned the first samples from the Moon’s far side. France, a leading ESA member, is currently engaged in a joint scientific mission with China known as SVOM. With both the U.S. and China planning lunar exploration initiatives, Europe faces a critical decision: continue aligning with NASA’s uncertain Artemis program or explore deeper cooperation with China’s International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). If the U.S. deprioritises lunar missions, European partners such as Japan and the UAE may also reconsider their alignment, potentially shifting their contributions, including Japan’s pressurised lunar rover and the UAE’s space station airlock to China’s programme.

As the U.S. pursues an ‘America First’ agenda in space, Europe must confront the reality that its long-term ambitions may no longer align with Washington’s ever-shifting priorities. China, on the other hand, has consistently demonstrated a clear and methodical approach to space exploration, with a willingness to engage in international partnerships. If by 2028 the U.S. remains focused on national security and commercial interests while China continues expanding its capabilities in lunar exploration and crewed missions, Europe may find itself with little choice but to turn toward China. While such a transition would not be immediate, the long-term trajectory of space policy means that decisions made in the coming years will shape global space cooperation for decades. It is both pragmatic and necessary for Europe to establish deeper ties with China early to ensure its own space ambitions are realised.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Don-vip

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