Von Der Leyen Bets Big On Central Asia - Will it Work Out?

The traffic in Samarkand last Thursday was terrible. Registan street, overlooking the breathtaking Registan square was closed for a visit from the European Commission. Ursula von der Leyen and company were shown Uzbekistan’s most iconic landmark by President Shavkat Mirzivoyev as part of the inaugural EU-Central Asia summit. Attended by European and Central Asian leaders, including the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and of course Uzbekistan, this may represent a crucial moment in Central Asia’s world role. 

Sandwiched between China, Russia, Iran, and the Caspian Sea, Central Asia is perhaps not the geopolitical force it should be. Since independence, all of its neighbours have vied for dominance of the strategically crucial region. The EU has always been a key partner, but this summit should represent a step forward in these relations. Since the turn of the century the region has been mired in ethnic conflict, and Mirzivoyev himself admitted that even a few years ago such a summit with all Central Asian leaders may not have been possible. This alongside the announcement of a new €12 billion investment package, to be invested in transport, raw materials, energy, and climate, could mean that the EU is making strides to become the dominant geopolitical force in the region.

And so they should, in a world where Donald Trump has thrown global trade off-kilter, Central Asia could be a wise place to offset what will be lost. The region contains nearly 40% of the world’s manganese ore and 30% of the world’s chromium. Kazakhstan is already the EU’s third-largest source of oil, being boosted by the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022, and likely to benefit again from Donald Trump’s sanctions. With €2.5 billion of the investment package to be spent on raw materials, Kazakhstan looks to be a big winner here. Europe’s transport connections to the East have been hampered by Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, crossing from Europe, through Central Asia to China has been an underutilised trade route from East to West. Even though trade through this route has doubled since the Ukraine war, €3 billion is going into Central Asian transport as part of this agreement. Clearly the EU has seen an opportunity here in Central Asia to offset the oncoming economic storm caused by Trump.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the countries of Central Asia have been largely reliant on investments from their neighbouring superpowers. While they and the EU share security interests, with all five states having endeavoured to stop the spread of Islamic extremism to the region, Central Asia has economically benefited from Russia’s war with Ukraine by exporting western goods to Russia. This summit makes a lot of sense, Russia is becoming a less reliable trade partner for Central Asia and by opening a new market they become less reliant on Moscow. The fact is, however, that this investment from the EU pales in comparison to the investment the region gets from China. In 2023 trade between China and the region hit $89.4 billion, the EU’s investment looks like a drop in the ocean when this is considered. 

China’s presence is felt in the region. When I have travelled around Kyrgyzstan, taxi drivers have multiple times pointed to factories and building sites and told me they are Chinese investments. For the poorer nations of Central Asia - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, large-scale Chinese projects are much more valuable than a vague European investment package. Kyrgyzstan’s Northern and Southern electricity grids were unified in 2015 thanks to a Chinese project, and last year new investment was made to continue the construction of a railway connecting China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. These projects produce concrete economic growth and jobs for Central Asian people, and it is no wonder that China has become Central Asia’s most important ally. 

It has been mooted that this will become a biennial summit, insinuating that the EU may become more serious about this partnership in the future, perhaps this first summit is Europe planting its flag in a region underrepresented in geopolitics, Central Asia certainly has a lot to gain from a stronger partnership with the EU, but if they want to abet China’s dominance they need to show they have something more concrete to offer.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Kraftabbas

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