U.S. Shift In Its Security Priority: Europe's Chance To Regain Leadership
On February 12, 2025, US President Donald Trump revealed that he had a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. Both leaders expressed the wish to end the war by negotiation. Ironically, neither Ukraine nor the European Union participated in this crucial conversation that is likely to reshape the continent's future, sparking concerns over the EU's diminishing influence in the continent's affairs. Hence, this passage aims to outline some rationales for President Trump's disengagement in supporting Ukraine unconditionally and examine, from a historical and power perspective, how it could be an opportunity for the EU to regain its leadership in this conflict.
President Trump has long criticised Europe for its insufficient support of Ukraine. Since the outbreak of the war in February 2022, the United States has provided more financial and military aid to Ukraine than any other country, with the total amount exceeding $75 billion, $30 billion more than the second-largest supporter, Germany. The United States is also the largest contributor to NATO, a military alliance mainly for peace in Europe rather than North America, by covering more than 15% of its expenditure. This undeniably goes against President Trump's "America First" advocacy, which explains his call for European countries to take more responsibility for the continent's affairs instead of relying on foreign stakeholders.
Another reason for the shift in American security priority is strategic competition with China. Since the Biden administration, the United States has viewed China as its top competitor and the only country able to reshape the world. Russia's military capabilities and international influence have continued to decline since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and it only poses a "threat" to global security. Cutting financial support for Ukraine and achieving a ceasefire would allow the United States to direct more resources and efforts against China. The diplomatic normalisation between the White House and the Kremlin may also weaken the Sino-Russian alliance, further isolating the PRC diplomatically.
In sum, the United States may withdraw from the Ukrainian battlefield, leaving an immense political and military vacuum in Europe. European countries should and can fill this void for the following reasons.
Strategic military independence has been a prominent topic in the European integration project. Back in the 1950s, France already proposed establishing the European Defence Community, which attempted to build an integrated European army to address the increasing military threat of the Soviet Union. However, it was rejected several years later due to improving international conditions, marked by the end of the Korean War and the death of Stalin. Throughout the past decades, France has long advocated against the over-reliance on American military support. However, other European countries were less motivated, seeing NATO as a protective umbrella. These initiatives failed, I posit, due to the lack of external drivers, such as crisis.
Exogenous crisis has played a crucial role in fostering integration throughout the EU's history. Jean Monnet, who founded the modern European integration project, said, "Europe will be forged in crisis" in 1967. His comment had already been evidenced when post-war economic stagnation precipitated the European Coal and Steel Community’s formation, much like the Single European Act of 1986 was employed to overcome the high unemployment rate and stagflation due to multiple oil crises. These achievements laid a solid foundation for the contemporary European integration project. The American disengagement from the war in Ukraine undoubtedly casts a pall of uncertainty over Europe’s future. Yet, history teaches us that this crisis can potentially be a valuable opportunity that drives European countries together to deepen their integration. Hence, Europe should take up more responsibility in the Ukraine war.
European countries can also strengthen their support to Ukraine with their eminent economic and military power. Economically, the EU, with a population of around 450 million people, has a larger population than the United States, constituting an immense market. The bloc is also the second-largest economy in the world in nominal GDP terms and the third-largest at purchasing power parity (PPP). Hence, the Union should be more committed to the defence of Ukraine, given its financial capability. Militarily, Poland has the largest military force in Europe, with over 216,000 soldiers. France also has a long history of producing advanced combat aircraft, including Dassault Rafale and Dassault Mirage. In addition, both the United Kingdom and France are nuclear states. Europe has in its possession everything needed to strengthen its military support for Ukraine.
Despite the EU's substantial contributions to Ukraine, it has not been enough. In the 2022 Versailles Summit, many EU member states agreed to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine and increase their defence spending to 2% of their GDP, meeting the NATO target. However, the EU has been slow to send a range of advanced weapons to the war-torn country. In the future, European countries should not only expedite the delivery of armaments but also explore the possibility of sending a peacekeeping force to support the defence of Ukrainians.
With the latest Russian advance in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, Europe is far from peace. Instead of relying on a country 8,000 km away, European countries should be more committed to the continent's affairs.
Image: Wikimedia Commons/Defense Visual Information Distribution Service (Sgt. Henry Villarama)
Licence: public domain.
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