Transnistria Turns to Moldova for Gas Relief
On 20 January 2025, Vadim Krasnoselsky, president of the Russian-backed separatist Transnistria, announced his intention to purchase natural gas from Moldovagaz, the national gas company of Moldova. The decision comes in response to a severe ongoing energy crisis precipitated by Russia’s Gazprom ceasing gas supplies on 1 January 2025, citing a spurious and disputed $709 million debt owed by Moldova. Krasnoselsky recently visited Moscow seeking “humanitarian” aid in the form of gas supplies.
The announcement follows the insinuation that Moldovagaz will recognise the disputed $709 million debt to Gazprom, with the company holding a 50% stake in Moldovagaz. Chisinau has hinted at plans to nationalise Moldovagaz amidst Russian attempts to weaponise energy throughout the Transnistrian energy crisis. Moscow, in turn, has blamed Moldova and Ukraine for Transnistria’s plight, accusing Kyiv of ceasing gas transit and Chisinau of failure to settle outstanding debts. On 16 January, the Kremlin said it was ready to assist Transnistria but was constrained by the absence of “logistical actions” from Moldova.
The cessation of Russian gas supplies precipitated a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria. Since 1 January, Transnistrian residents have faced the loss of heating and hot water during excruciatingly cold winter months, leading to widespread electricity shortages. Industries have been forced to shut down or significantly reduce operations, resulting in a substantial decline in both exports and imports. The region's primary power plant, reliant on natural gas, has struggled to maintain operations, exacerbating the humanitarian situation.
Transnistria has long relied on Russia for political, economic, and military backing. Following its internationally unrecognised declaration of independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Transnistria has maintained its de facto autonomy with substantial Russian assistance. Approximately 1,500 Russian troops are stationed in the region, and Moscow exploits Transnistria’s contested status to exert coercive influence on Moldova as it seeks European integration.
Economically, Transnistria has benefited from Russian energy subsidies. Gazprom historically supplied natural gas either free of charge or at significantly reduced rates, effectively subsidising the region's economy. This arrangement enabled Transnistria to operate its industries and the Cuciurgan power station, which not only supplied electricity locally but also sold surplus power to Moldova.
Maia Sandu, President of Moldova, reiterated Chisinau's willingness to assist Transnistria in its ongoing energy crisis. She emphasised that Moldova is prepared to offer immediate support, inclusive of generators and medical supplies. However, Sandu underscored the conditionality of such assistance: its provision can only be considered once Russian troops are withdrawn from Transnistria and the current ‘peacekeeping’ contingent is replaced by a “civilian mission”, under the auspices of either the European Union or the United Nations. Sandu further stated that any assistance to Transnistria would need to be ballasted by international support, due to Moldova’s precarious financial position.
Initially, Transnistrian authorities declined Moldovan offers, expressing concerns over higher and unstable prices associated with non-Russian gas supplies. More likely, the Transnistrian authorities feared going against the Kremlin to ensure their continued political and economic support from Russia. However, facing mounting pressure from the humanitarian impact of the energy crisis, Krasnoselsky's recent announcement indicates a significant policy shift. By agreeing to purchase gas from Moldovagaz, Transnistria is taking steps toward greater economic integration with Moldova, potentially altering the longstanding status quo.
Russia’s decision to halt gas supplies to Transnistria raised significant questions about its strategic objectives. Some argued that Russia was weaponising energy as a tool to exert pressure on Moldova, to destabilise the government in Chisinau ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections and secure a result favourable to the Kremlin. Others suggest that Transnistria’s move to engage directly with Moldovagaz indicates a conscious decision to reduce the breakaway region’s dependency on Moscow.
Regardless, the shift in rhetoric and policy could open avenues for dialogue between Transnistria and Moldova, fostering cooperation to address energy vulnerability and potentially forcing a reevaluation of Transnistria’s political alignment, which could see reintegration. At present, roughly 80 per cent of Transnistrian exports are sent to the European Union, a dramatic change from the similar figure that arrived in Russia in 2013.
The agreement by Kransoselsky for Transnistria to purchase natural gas from Moldova is a pivotal movement in the region’s history. It reflects a pragmatic, somewhat existential, response to an acute energy crisis and signals a potential reorientation of Transnistria's economic and political relationships. As the situation evolves, the actions of Russia, Moldova, and Transnistria will be central in determining the future stability and alignment of the region. Whether Russian troops are withdrawn depends solely on Moscow, whose actions must be closely monitored as Transnistria seeks support from Moldova.
Image: President of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic/Wikimedia Commons
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