Tough Times Lie Ahead for the US and Mexico: The Clash of Populism Has Begun

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, relations between the United States and Mexico are more tense than ever. Both countries are governed by populist leaders at both ends of the political spectrum. Trump's second term will be defined by a harshly protectionist right-wing agenda as he decreed throughout his campaign. Mexico, on the other hand, is under a continuity government led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, who like her predecessor, has a highly nationalist left-wing political posture. Confrontations have been long coming and are likely to continue and intensify as the administrations continue their inevitable clash.

Long before Trump was sworn in as president, he was already directing his attacks at the neighbouring country of 128 million on issues related to security, the migratory flow, and the mass deportations that he intends to channel during his administration. The press response from the president of Mexico has been consistent, but the battle has only just begun. Migration and border security are the central themes of Trump’s tirades, bolstered by threats of tariffs and even hinting at  the possibility of covert operations in Mexican territory. Trying to project strength and invoking national sovereignty, President Sheinbaum has emphasised that in the event of eventual tariff imposition, this will be responded to with the same action, although she has also advocated for dialogue between both countries.

The profiles of both presidents are completely different in their political discourse and in their way of governing. In the face of an issue as well-known as border security, it's likely the United States will maintain greater leverage over Mexico in shaping bilateral policies. The relationship between both countries is terrifically complicated by history, but the commitment and joint action on shared issues has become the norm, with the United States leading the way. This case will not be the exception, however there will be a lot of discursive confrontation due to differences in the leaders’ temperaments alone. Trump will seek to assert dominance at all costs by making himself look like a strong president who manages to force his Mexican counterpart to comply with the actions he dictates. Sheinbaum, for her part, will have no choice but to endure the attacks and broadcast an image of being open to dialogue and averse to conflict.

Those who will pay the price in this diplomatic conflict will be the migrants (both Mexicans and from other countries of the global south) who will be used as bargaining chips in this scenario. In action and speech, this population has been scapegoated by the American President. On the Mexican side, things are not so different. Migrants, whether they are Mexican nationals or not, are victims of constant violence by authorities such as the National Guard as well as criminal organisations within Mexican territory. This is the painful and suppurating truth that the attacks and discussions between the leaders of both countries always elide.

Nothing good, in short, comes out of exacerbated populism. The back-and-forth between Trump and Sheinbaum is proof that diplomatic relations between these two countries are directly subject to the image of their respective leaders. Meanwhile, a vast amount of the population of their territories will suffer the consequences of their volatility. An extremely complicated panorama is foreseeable for the remainder of the decade in this region, taking into consideration that the administrations of both leaders have only recently begun.

The United States and Mexico are intertwined, irreducibly, by their shared history, cultures, economic ties, and yes even friendship. Both presidents will be shaped by these ties, which are indubitably strong. But in these times of high polarisation and demagogy, their bilateral relations will face a test of fire never seen before. Only time will tell how long diplomacy and mutual understanding between the two countries will endure.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/The White House

Licence: Public Domain.

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