The unpredictability of this year's U.S. presidential election never ceases to amaze me. Almost weekly, we witness unprecedented events that dramatically alter the dynamics of this race. Who could have foreseen Trump being almost fatally shot at his rally, or Biden's cognitive decline surfacing during one of the most critical moments of this campaign? This unprecedented dynamism makes predicting outcomes of this election extremely challenging.
As I proudly join Europinion as a Political Commentator, I plan to dedicate my first week in this role to producing and publishing two articles that present cases for both Harris' and Trump's victory in this year’s U.S. presidential election. Subsequently, I am also planning to publish two articles discussing the potential economic and security implications of a Harris, or a Trump administration. However, for now, here are my top five arguments for why Kamala Harris could become the US’ first female Commander-in-Chief:
Age Factor
The question of when someone is too old to bear the responsibilities of the Presidency has been central to this presidential race, with doubts surrounding his cognitive fitness being one of the key influences on Biden’s decision to withdraw. Thus, in formulating their campaign strategy, Trump and the Republicans have overemphasised the contrast between Biden’s and Trump’s cognitive abilities. This overemphasis represents a strategic miscalculation, as Biden has now been replaced by Harris, and Trump has become the oldest presidential nominee from a major party in U.S. history. Therefore, what initially seemed like a significant strategic opportunity for Trump may ultimately backfire on him, underscoring his own age-related vulnerabilities.
At 78, Trump is not as cognitively sharp as he was in 2020 or in 2016. For instance, in one of his speeches he mixed up Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi, and in another speech called his wife Melania “Mercedes”. Therefore, a relatively youthful and articulate 59-year-old like Kamala Harris presents a stark comparison to Trump, enabling the Democrats to capitalise on Trump’s slip-ups, thereby employing his longtime strategic approach against him.
Style vs. Substance
The recent debates between Trump and Biden have highlighted that the style in which policies are articulated can often overshadow their actual substance. As a one-term President, Biden has an impressive track record. For instance, his American Rescue Plan significantly aided the U.S. economic recovery from the COVID-19-induced slump, and his Inflation Reduction Act facilitated the largest federal investment in climate change mitigation in U.S. history.
However, Biden’s declining cognitive abilities have hampered his effectiveness in communicating these policy successes to the broader public.
In contrast, Harris could articulate those more effectively, thereby striking an optimal balance between style and policy substance, and potentially changing the electoral perception of the current administration and its record since 2021.
Running mate
While empirical evidence suggests that the influence of a vice-presidential candidate on a presidential candidate’s electoral performance is relatively modest, the selection of a running mate remains a relatively important strategic decision for every campaign. Considering the demographics pivotal in determining the outcome of this year’s election, Harris is wisely focusing mostly on moderate Democrats from swing states as potential VP picks.
Candidates such as Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, or Mike Kelly of Arizona, could significantly broaden Harris’s electoral base. This strategy also positions her favourably against Trump, who has chosen a fellow MAGA supporter J.D. Vance as his running mate who, despite his swing state origin, does not offer Trump significant electoral benefits,
Fundraising enthusiasm
Despite Trump's current fundraising advantage, embodied in him raising $331 million from April to June 2024, this trend might soon change dramatically. Since Sunday, Kamala Harris has raised over $100 million, surpassing some of Joe Biden's monthly figures. Therefore, as Harris’ candidacy is igniting increased interest and enthusiasm among donors, donations to her campaign are likely to increase further in the long run.
Therefore, Harris would be able to leverage those financial resources to significantly enhance her campaign's outreach and grassroots mobilization efforts that are crucial for her electoral success, given her relatively low-profile role in the Biden administration.
The incredible disappearing Vice President”
In his 2021 opinion piece titled “Kamala Harris, the incredible disappearing vice president,” Los Angeles Times columnist Mark Z. Barabak perfectly encapsulates widespread criticism of Harris from both sides of the political spectrum as one of the least active and effective U.S. Vice Presidents. This perception is fuelled by her delayed visit to the U.S.-Mexico border during the immigration crisis and her apparent isolation from key decision-making processes within the administration.
However, Harris' relative inactivity as Vice President could be advantageous, as it distances her from some of the Biden administration's more contentious actions and policies, such as its handling of the War in Gaza. This could increase her appeal within the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
Overall, having secured enough delegates for the Democratic nomination, I believe that Kamala Harris is well-positioned to become America’s next President. Her relative youth compared to Trump, her ability to more effectively communicate the Biden administration's policy successes, her strategic approach in running mate selection, growing enthusiasm among donors, and her relatively low profile in the Biden administration, which distances her from its more contentious issues, all contribute to strengthening her candidacy.
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