As previously promised, I will now make a case for why Donald Trump could win this year’s U.S. presidential election. Personally, I remain sceptical about Trump’s victory chances, but it is crucial to emphasise, considering its unprecedentedly dynamic nature, when predicting the outcome of the 2024 US presidential race, no scenario should be ruled out. Here are my top five arguments for why Donald Trump could become the first U.S. President since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms:
Electoral College
Many commentators, most notably Allan Lichtman, recommend treating nationwide polling with caution, as the winner of the US election is determined by the Electoral College, not the popular vote. The most recent manifestation of this unique institutional feature was in 2016, when Trump won the Electoral College and thus the Presidency despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
A similar scenario might occur in 2024. Therefore, it is crucial to focus on Trump’s performance in swing states with a high number of electoral votes, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. Despite Harris’s narrow lead in recent nationwide polls, Trump still holds a slight edge in most of these key swing states. However, given the rapidly changing dynamics of this race, it is uncertain whether this trend will continue into the autumn.
Incumbency Factor
Upon reading President Biden's withdrawal letter in which he announced a televised address, later in the week, I was almost convinced that he intended to publicly announce his resignation. Yet, he chose to remain in office until January 2025—a decision that might be seen as a strategic miscalculation by the Democrats.
The positive influence of incumbency on a politician’s electoral performance is well-documented. As a sitting President, Biden will inevitably receive greater press coverage compared to Harris. Consequently, combined with his potential future public missteps the lack of sufficient press coverage could negatively impact Harris’ electoral performance and her ability to reach out to her potential voters. However, with the Democratic National Convention coming up in August, and the long road to November ahead, the possibility of Biden resigning prematurely should not be entirely ruled out.
Assassination Attempt
The assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, reflects the deeply polarised nature of contemporary American political discourse. Extensive media coverage of the aftermath has provided Trump a significant political opportunity to reinvent his image and present himself as a unifier in a moment of national uncertainty—a role he has not traditionally embraced. This rebranding could have significantly boosted his appeal among swing voters and some moderate Republicans who could potentially be persuaded to give Trump a second chance.
Initially, Trump seemed to seize this opportunity by urging Americans to "stand united and demonstrate their true character." However, this message of unity was quickly overshadowed by his return to divisive rhetoric and personal attacks on his political opponents. For instance, at a rally held shortly after the assassination attempt, he referred to Kamala Harris as "a bum" and "a failed vice president." Therefore, it could be argued that political gains for Trump from his assassination attempt were very short-lived. As the media focus has now shifted towards the Democrats, it is evident that Trump has missed a crucial chance to bolster his electoral performance.
Economy
According to a 2024 survey by Data for Progress, the state of the economy was the most critical issue influencing the choice of candidate among US voters. The US economy has successfully recovered from the COVID-19-induced slump and conflict in Ukraine-induced pressures, with the inflation rate dropping to 3.0% from May to June 2024—significantly lower than the levels seen in 2022 and 2023. However, consumer sentiment remains relatively low. Historically, the negative perception of consumers in regards to the state of the US economy has greatly contributed to the defeat of incumbent Presidents, as seen with George H.W. Bush in 1992 and with Trump himself in 2020.
As real incomes are beginning to increase in line with inflation, the consumer sentiment index in the US has started to rise. Notably, there was a 14.1-point increase from January 2023 to January 2024. If this trend continues, it could have significant positive political implications for Kamala Harris, making it more challenging for Trump to argue that the economy is failing under Democratic leadership.
Sticking with the Devil They Know
Despite the vigour and sense of renewal that Kamala Harris brings to the presidential race, her low-key profile in the Biden administration and her relative newcomer status in national politics mean that many voters are still unclear about her positions on a wide range of pressing policy issues. While the period from July to November can be considered an eternity in electoral politics, Harris must make tremendous efforts to clearly articulate her policy stances to the broader electorate, thereby solidly establishing and defining herself as a candidate.
Progressive voters, for instance, may not clearly understand her positions on the War in Gaza, while more moderate voters might be concerned about her perceived overly liberal stance on immigration. Therefore, there is a significant risk that, uncertain of what to expect from Harris, some voters may either abstain from voting altogether or even vote for Trump, whose stances they may disagree with, but whose stances are clearly defined and well-known.
Overall, this article outlines five key arguments for why Donald Trump could win back the White House in 2024 by emphasising the importance of the Electoral College, the significance of incumbency for electoral success, Trump’s inability to effectively capitalise on his assassination attempt, political implications of low consumer sentiment, and voter uncertainty about Kamala Harris.
Image: The White House
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