The Fall Of Assad As It Happened

A sleepless night watching the fall of Syria’s Assad dynasty unfold in the early hours of Sunday 8th December precipitated this piece, which captures the fearful yet tentative hope characterising the end of over half a century of terror. 

At 3:34 GMT, Reuters reported that Syria’s Arab Army’s (SAA) – the Government force – Army Command notified officers that President Bashar Al-Assad’s rule had ended. All this followed astounding rebel advances across the country in preceding weeks and into Damascus itself at around 2:07 GMT. Gunfire was reported in the city and a notorious prison, Sednaya, to the north of the capital was captured by rebel groups at around 2:20 GMT.

The announcement by the SAA can be seen in videos on social media of military uniforms left abandoned on the streets of Damascus. Associated Press (AP) confirms these videos and also mentions that the main police headquarters in Damascus was abandoned with no officers left inside. This bears striking similarities to events in Kabul in 2021.

The fall of the Assad regime of 53 years wasn’t unexpected, but even a CNN broadcast on Saturday referenced US officials stating that the regime would fall within days – not hours. 

Assad’s whereabouts were unknown until the Kremlin stated that he was in Russia. There was plenty of speculation by OSINT (open-source intelligence) accounts on X (formerly Twitter) that a Syrian Air Ilyushin 76 (Il-76) transport plane was used to transport the President from Damascus. The plane disappeared off Flightradar at around 3:00 GMT after a fairly rapid descent from 12,000 feet, west of Homs in north-eastern Syria, supposedly en route to a coastal government held area in the region. Other sources disputed this, claiming a different plane en route to the UAE was transporting Assad. Other mainstream outlets weighed in. However, soon after the departure of the Il-76, government forces near the airport started to take off their uniforms, which could lend credence to the former theory.

Unlike Assad, the PM of his government, Mohammed Ghazi Al-Jallali, has stayed in Syria and promised that he would facilitate the transition by protecting public institutions as reported by AP. The leader of HTS (Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham), Ahmed Al Shara, announced on Telegram (image included) that rebel fighters were not to approach public institutions as they would be under the care of the former PM, until they were handed over.

Assad’s allies (namely, Hezbollah, Iran and Russia) have backed away. At 2:00 GMT on Sunday December 8, Hezbollah’s forces withdrew from Homs and Damascus. Amos Hochstein, the US envoy to Lebanon commented that Hezbollah’s weakening may well have been critical to the defeat of Assad.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, stating that the Turkish and Russian Foreign Ministers were in agreement with him, urged the Syrian Government to engage opposition groups in talks, according to an update by the Guardian’s live blog on Saturday evening (December 7, 6:45pm).

Despite being vocal about supporting Assad on Saturday, Russia has been evacuating troops and equipment from its bases in Syria, according to unverified videos on X as well as a freelance journalist in the region.

There are concerning reports about Syria’s unsecured chemical warfare banks. CNN reports that some rebels in the south have asked the Organisation of the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to help secure some of the chemical weapons that have fallen under their control. 

The outward reaction of the US government has been relatively muted outside of a tweet by the NSC (National Security Council) spokesperson early morning on Sunday (December 8), stating “President Biden and his team are closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria.”

Meanwhile, neighbouring countries are seemingly bracing for a continuation of conflict, with Jordan sending troops to reinforce its borders. Israel is expanding its buffer zone into Syria, past the Golan Heights, which it has controlled since 1967. On Saturday evening (December 7), Israel was defending the UN force in Hader (near the Golan Heights) against attacks as well as reinforcing troops in the Golan Heights, according to the Jerusalem Post. As of early Sunday morning, OSINT reports that Israel seems to be launching ‘a ground operation into Syria’s Quneitra Province.’ Other sources seem to corroborate this.

As dawn rose over Damascus, the mood was largely celebratory. The fall of Assad’s regime marks a turning point in Syria’s history. However, with deep divisions among rebel factions and regional powers positioning themselves for influence, the country’s path forward remains highly uncertain.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/kremlin.ru

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