After more than a decade of political disputes, Catalonia seems to have turned the page with the start of its new government on August 10. Salvador Illa, a member of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), was sworn in as president of the Generalitat with the support of the left-wing party, Catalunya en Comú (Comuns) and the left-wing pro-independence party, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC). The independence movement has been left somewhat deflated following the elections of May 12, in which it failed to maintain its majority. The pact between the PSC and ERC represents a break between the latter and its right-wing pro-independence counterpart, Junts per Catalunya (Junts), a party with which it joined forces during secession efforts. Catalan politics still runs the risk of destabilising if unrest or conflict between the left were to arise, which would not be a novelty in an autonomous community that has witnessed five elections in 12 years. Such a possibility would undoubtedly increase the discontent of its already highly shaken and politically polarised population.
The current political scene in Catalonia is the result of a long process marked by tensions between the region and the Spanish government. Catalonia was dominated by a regionalist party for more than two decades after post-Franco democratisation. Beginning in 2003, a coalition led by the PSC briefly broke that hegemony. However, in 2010, CiU, a centre-right pro-independence party, came to power, initiating a turn towards independence in 2012 aided by a pact with ERC.
This pact, and the support of other pro-sovereignty forces, precipitated Catalonia's declaration of sovereignty, known as “el Procés.” Despite opposition from the Spanish government and pro-Spain parties, a referendum was held on November 9 2014. Although the “Yes” vote for sovereignty won with 80%, the low turnout (37%) raised doubts about the legitimacy of the process.
The 2015 elections were a turning point, with the creation of the coalition “Juntos pel Sí”, which won the majority, although it depended on the support of the CUP, which imposed a change of leadership. Carles Puigdemont assumed the presidency and with the support of the pro-sovereignty majority, he advocated a self-determination referendum in 2017, declared illegal by the Constitutional Court. Despite this, the referendum was carried out, with 90% of votes in favour of independence, although only 42% of the electorate participated.
The Spanish government responded in force: in October 2017, following the unilateral declaration of independence by the Catalan Parliament, the president of Spain, Mariano Rajoy, applied article 155 of the Constitution, intervening in Catalan autonomy, dismissing Puigdemont and dissolving the government. This led to new elections in December 2017, in which the pro-Spain party Ciudadanos was the most voted party, but the pro-independence forces, Junts and ERC with support of the CUP, formed a government under the presidency of Quim Torra. During his term tensions continued, especially during the trial of the pro-independence leaders in 2019, who were accused of rebellion and sedition. In 2021, after Torra was disqualified from holding a government position, new elections were called. The PSC won the majority, but once again pro-sovereignty forces managed to form a government, this time under the leadership of Pere Aragonès. In June 2021 the Spanish government pardoned those convicted of the Procés, closing a chapter whilst simultaneously leaving open political wounds.
In 2022, Junts left the ERC-led government and the impossibility of governing without their support led to the early elections of 2024. These elections reflected a change in the panorama: the PSC was once again the most popular party and managed to form a government with the support of ERC and Comuns Sumar, investing Salvador Illa as president. Although the independence movement seems to have lost strength, its resurgence cannot be ruled out in the near future.
The Catalan conflict has been a fight for legitimacy, with both sides manipulating the discourse to advance their own agendas. The independence movement, although weakened, is still very much alive, and the future of Catalonia will depend on how popular support and political alliances are articulated in the coming years.
Carles Puigdemont, from his exile, remains a symbolic figure of Catalan independence, influencing Junts policy and maintaining relevance in Catalonia. His leadership is a reminder of the unresolved conflict, although its direct impact on current politics is more limited by his legal situation.
This conflict reflects the deep divide between the desires for self-determination of a significant part of Catalan society and the defence of Spanish unity by the central government. Although the independence movement has lost electoral strength, it remains impossible to ignore. Dialogue and compromise are essential to prevent these tensions from escalating again. The new government led by Salvador Illa has the opportunity to rebuild bridges and seek solutions that recognise Catalonia's aspirations within a democratic and constitutional framework.
Image: Wikimedia Commons/Govern de Catalunya
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