In 1981 Allan Lichtman, an American historian of some renown, got together with a Russian geologist (of all people) named Vladimir Keilis-Borok to create what has become the most reliable prediction system for US Presidential elections. The pair studied US election history from 1860 to 1980.
The 13 keys are based on examining the strength of the incumbent administration’s record on issues like the economy and foreign policy to determine whether they will be securing another term. Lichtman argues that this trumps all the polls, debates, and slogans. Polls, meagre snapshots in time, he reserves particular scorn for.
The 2020 election cost around $14 billion. Given how defined Presidential campaigns now are by theatrical rallies and wall-to-wall advertising, it is amusing to see that according to Lichtman’s historical interpretation, the most effective way to win an election is to focus solely on governance.
The following are Lichtman’s assessments of the 13 keys, and thus who comes out on top this November. For clarity, 6 or more keys turned against the incumbent administration indicate an “earthquake” defeat for the incumbent. On the other hand, 5 or fewer keys turned against the incumbent means that a second term is won.
Key 1 - Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than in the previous midterms.
Partly due to the Republican disunity, the Democrats performed better than anticipated in 2022. The removal of Kevin McCarthy from the Speakership of the House of Representatives in October 2023, after being elected following 15 rounds of voting, was a strong indicator of said division. However, the Democrats still lost the House, therefore key 1 is turned against the incumbent administration.
Key 2 - No primary contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent party’s nomination.
In October 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out from the race for the Democratic nomination, choosing to run as an independent, until recently ending his Presidential campaign and endorsing Donald Trump. Apart from RFK Jr., there were no serious contests for the Democratic Party’s nomination. As a matter of fact, Kamala Harris swept up the Democratic nomination with ease, securing 99% of the delegate vote. Thus, this key turns for a second Democratic term.
Key 3 - Incumbent seeking re-election
The incumbent party candidate is the sitting President.
This election’s curveball, despite the equal parts deplorable and predictable political violence seen through the two assassination attempts on Former President Donald Trump, came from President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race at the end of July. His withdrawal has paved the way for a turnaround few were expecting, however it does flip this key against the Democrats.
Key 4 - No Third Party contest
There is no third party/independent campaign capable of amassing the 10% voting threshold.
RFK Jr., as aforementioned, dropped out and endorsed Donald Trump. This is significant, because from my perspective, Kennedy could have amassed more than enough support to meet the voting threshold given his family name, and also the appeal of being the third way in between two very poor choices. Thus, Kennedy’s withdrawal, although meant to strengthen Trump’s chances, turns in favour of the Democratic incumbents.
Key 5 - Strong short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Despite a lot of concern and debate about the US economy and whether it is headed for recession, it is not currently in the midst of one. In fact, in late 2022, when similar fears about high inflation and interest rates were making the rounds, the US economy performed better than expected. Thus, despite the white noise surrounding the subject, the US short-term economy key will remain in favour of the Democrats.
Key 6 - Strong long-term economy
Real per capita economic growth during the term exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic during the Trump administration and the uninspiring economic performance during Obama’s second term, key 6 turns strongly for the Democrats.
Only 2 keys have thus far been decisively turned against the Democratic incumbents. The following keys will prove crucial for Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
Key 7 - Major policy change
The incumbents effect major change in national policy.
Lichtman points out rejoining the Paris Climate Accords (February 2021), the CHIPS Bill (August 2022), and the Inflation Reduction Act (August 2022) are clear changes in national policy, thus turning this key decisively for the Democrats.
Key 8 - No social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Despite the campus protests over the turmoil in the Middle East, they do not meet the threshold for sustained social unrest comparable to BLM or the LA riots. Arguably this key could still swing come November. I further disagree with Lichtman when he claims that Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’s ascension “dampens” any unrest. Harris is after all just as identified with the White House as Biden. In spite of my disagreements, for now, this key does indeed stay put for the incumbents.
Key 9 - No scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals
Ever since the end of the Trump administration, the Republican side, facing countless indictments against their Presidential nominee, have led a concerted effort to frame President Biden. However, despite this dishonourable pettiness in political discourse, there is a serious debate being masked. Interest in Hunter Biden began as the reason for Trump’s phone call to President Zelensky in late 2019, which led to the first attempt to impeach him during his Presidency. The argument is that Hunter Biden has been conducting business in Ukraine as well as in China. Devon Archer, a former associate of Hunter Biden, claims that Joe Biden was on speakerphone during calls when he was Vice-President. His son and Archer sat on the board of Ukrainian energy company Burisma (2014). Although Joe Biden has dropped out of the race, and Kamala Harris has not faced severe and mainstream complications, these uncertainties will linger, just like the figure of Joe Biden won’t fade until after the election. However, given the scale of indictments and scandals surrounding Trump, it is unlikely that a scandal would affect the course of the election, apart from solidifying the political divide. Thus, like Lichtman, I believe this key remains safe for the Democrats.
Key 10 - Major foreign or military failure
The incumbent administration has suffered no major foreign or military failure.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was a rushed fiasco, with people left behind, alongside billions of dollars in military equipment, which the returning Taliban gladly received. Alongside this, some may argue that the War in Ukraine and the devastating conflict between Israel-Palestine also comprise failures. This key turns decisively against the incumbents.
Key 11 - Major foreign or military success
The incumbent administration has enjoyed foreign or military success.
Some individuals with a liberal worldview may argue that re-entering the Paris Climate Accord or strengthening NATO in response to Russian aggression have been successes. However the conflicts seen during the term overshadow any success from a realist perspective. If, similarly to the recent prisoner exchanges, the Biden administration is able to make a hostage deal in Israel-Palestine, and bring fighting to a halt, this may count as a success. However, with the threat of this conflict reaching new levels, with attacks on Lebanon and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, this slender chance of success might turn into a devastating failure. I believe this key turns against the incumbents.
Key 12 - Charismatic candidate for incumbents
The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero
Given US history has produced a bar of Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan, I believe Kamala Harris falls quite short when it comes to turning his key.
Key 13 - Charismatic challenger
The challenging party candidate is charismatic or a national hero
Although Donald Trump has attracted huge interest, he appeals to a narrow section of the electorate, as Lichtman is right to point out, and his rhetoric and speech is far from inspiring. This key does not threaten the incumbents.
Five or fewer keys turned against the Democrats. Lichtman’s prediction system forecasts that Kamala Harris will be the first female President of the United States.
However, Key 5, Key 8 and Key 9, are still, in my view, liquid. It is fair to argue that these keys are unlikely to turn against a second Democratic term, but the lesson of US politics is to never count anything out.
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