Starmer Should Lean in on Trump’s Love for British Institutions
Like many left-leaning observers of politics on this side of the pond, I was dismayed at the re-election of Donald Trump on November 5th. It’s a feeling I’m sure is shared, albeit privately, in the residence of 10 Downing Street, and amongst the scores of new Labour MPs populating the government benches in Westminster. That the Labour Party would rather work with a Democratic party led by Kamala Harris than a Republican administration under Trump should be no surprise to anyone. But the truth is that all allies of America, not just Britain, will be forced over the next four years to dance to the tune of Trump regardless of the direction in which he takes America in. Trump’s deep familial connections to Britain, paired with a reverence for British institutions that could outshine even the most fervent monarchist’s admiration, place us in a uniquely favourable position.
The waves of electoral politics in Westminster and Capitol Hill seldom align, often forcing British Prime Ministers to forge unexpected partnerships with their American counterparts. Bush and Blair immediately spring to mind. While Ronald Raegan and Margret Thatcher found common ground in their shared neo-liberal vision for society, the bond between Blair and Bush thrived despite their contrasting political beliefs. In truth, the brash, unapologetically conservative US President juxtaposed with the polished, statesman-like Labour leader on the global stage often seemed an unlikely double act, but they struck a friendship that Bush has since described in his memoirs as the strongest he enjoyed with any foreign leader.
Keir Starmer is unlikely to repeat these feats. Trump seems to revel in his role as the world’s pre-eminent iconoclast. Throughout his first term, he railed against decades of political precedent, threatening to withdraw the US from NATO and putting up trade barriers on geopolitical allies. In policy terms, his first four years on the job look like a precursor to the next four. He’s threatened to lump a 20% tariff on all imported goods, as well as a 60% tariff on those coming from China.
Britain simply must do all it can to avoid falling prey to the wrath of Donald Trump. America remains Britain’s largest trading partner, with over £191.5 billion worth of exports flowing from the UK to the US in 2023, a little over a fifth of total export volumes, and a whole 15% more than Britain’s next biggest trading partner Germany. Given these numbers, it is little surprise that economists remain less than sanguine about Britain’s growth prospects with Trump in the White House. The UK-based think tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research has stated recently that Trump’s tariff plans could suppress UK GDP growth by 0.5%-0.7% within the first two years alone.
So, what can Britain’s leaders do? In terms of a playbook, the FT sums it up the best, detailing a three-part strategy that revolves around flattery, distraction and golf, employed most effectively by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But this list isn’t exhaustive, and Britain has another card it could play by appealing to Donald Trump’s Anglophilic inclinations. There is a certain irony in an increasingly cynical country using extraterritorial patriotism as a buffer against economic isolationism. But Britain could do just this.
For a man who often displays an almost pathological capacity for irreverence, Donald Trump has often reflected humbly on his trips to the UK. On a recent flight between stops on the campaign trail, he spoke warmly of his relationship with the late Queen Elizabeth II, describing his official state visit as a ‘piece of history at the highest level’. Trump is of course prone to fits of hyperbole, but his strong feelings about the monarchy seem authentic, and the photos he’s kept immortalising the meetings are a real source of genuine pride for him.
So, what should Britain’s first steps be when the sun sets on Trump’s second presidential inauguration in early January? Many countries will naturally be quick to offer the hand of hospitality, but the UK could prove a more attractive destination than most. Official State invitations tend only to happen once, but repeat visits are not without precedent. French President Jacques Chirac visited the UK twice, first in 1996 and then again in 2004, to mark the centenary of the entente cordiale. The ceremonial calendar is unlikely to throw up such a convenient excuse for an invitation any time soon. But if Britain is serious about working with the Trump White House, there is little sense in delaying a second audience with His Majesty the King.
In truth, it will take more than a celebration of pomp and pageantry to win over the next President of the United States. If his first term is anything to go by, Trump will debase the art of international diplomacy until it resembles little more than a transaction. As such, Britain’s offerings to the President will ultimately have to be tangible. Nonetheless negotiation requires understanding the position of those on the other side. Predicting the future trade policy of a man prone to capricious and sudden changes of judgement seems a fool’s errand. For now, though flattery will only get you so far, it can’t be the worst place to start in the new era of Trump.
Image: Flickr/NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
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