Ring The Changes Or The Bells Will Toll For Thee

Forget New Year’s Resolutions this year. 2025 will be about survival for many. As we continue to navigate the ongoing charade of Brexit and face mounting global instability, it is reassuring to know that we have some supposedly common-sense politicians leading the charge in this country. Nevertheless, Keir Starmer needs to do more than just assert himself this year and explain why he is enacting the policies he currently is. Polls can be misleading indicators, for even the psephologists are not immune to their biases, let alone the general public. This is the case with YouGov, who has conducted the latest damning poll. Given that the polls are owned by former Tory MP Nadhim Zahawi and former Tory Candidate Stephan Shakespeare, I approach their results with a considerably larger pinch of salt than I otherwise might.

That said, the polling indications from YouGov have made rather unflattering reading in Number 10 for a while now. While Sir Keir talks the talk in his New Year’s Message, promising “more cash in your pocket,” he must ensure that the much-discussed wage increases and investments don’t lead to inflation in other goods, which would only make life harder for those on lower incomes. This could include raising the personal allowance taxation rate and ensuring that work pays for those on less than the real Living Wage Foundation’s rate. This currently stands at £26,208 per year. This would mean not raising taxes for anyone below this rate and could boost the finances of people who would actually spend their money on liquid assets. 

Whilst this might seem radical, given Starmer’s action against pensioners most recently, what the majority of pensioners that I have spoken to feel is that they want their children to have means that they did not. Currently, this really isn’t the case. From personal experience, I am still living at home at 27, and most of my colleagues and friends are doing the same. This is not because we are lazy or workshy; when I’m not working, I’m looking for other opportunities, making art, writing articles, and coding – all  active pursuits contributing to professional development. Like many, I do this whilst in employment and applying to dozens of jobs a month, not least because, again, like many, I am employed on a fixed-term contract.

Comparatively, not least thanks to completing higher education, I am relatively well off. Many are not so ‘lucky’, and it is this that makes me think YouGov’s polling methodology is rash and reactionary rather than anything to be taken seriously. Why should people have a differing opinion of “things are terrible with Labour,” when they have been told this message for the past 6 months by the media and told a similar message of prophecies of doom before they got into power? When prompted, and having subsequently taken stock of personal and professional surroundings, how could they come to any other conclusions?

Whilst psephology can illuminate the political trajectory of political figures and the extent to which they fulfil their promises to the public, it can also be utilised to manipulate information depending on the questions asked. “How would you rate Keir Starmer on his messaging?” is a very different question from “How would you rate the Labour Party’s intentions and actions in governing?” Indeed, no government comes into power wanting to make life worse for people or at least believing that they want to make life worse for people. If they did, they would fall at the first hurdle. Time will tell for Keir Starmer, as long as he doesn’t make any fatal errors that turn the parliamentary Labour Party unilaterally against him. As he has a large but shallow majority, he can in theory govern with some impunity, as long as he doesn’t upset too many of his own side. Will what Labour does for the country make people feel better, though? It has been recently touted that Britain is now the sick man of Europe. If people feel sicker for longer and have increasing comorbidities, this leads to a lack of productivity. Political rhetoric exclusively, like the common British adage, “Keep calm and carry on,” cannot solve this, and we will need radical thinking and actions in order to finally climb out of the chasm we have dug over many years, lest the bells toll for Starmer & co too.

Image: Flickr/No 10 Downing Street (Simon Dawson)

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