The separatist region of Transnistria within Moldova finds itself in the centre of a looming crisis with potentially existential implications. The imminent cessation of Russian gas supplies not only risks escalating tensions between Moscow and Moldova, but also threatens to upend the precarious status quo of relative peace.
Transnistria has maintained de facto independence, existing in a politically unsettled frozen conflict, since 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union and subsequent support from the Russian Federation. Central to its survival is its reliance on subsidised Russian gas, a dependency under threat as Ukraine refuses to renew the transit agreement. On 31 December 2024, the gas transit agreement between Russian state-controlled Gazprom and Ukrainian state-controlled Naftogaz, originally signed in December 2019, will expire.
The expiry of this agreement jeopardises gas flows to both Moldova and Transnistria, prompting states of emergency on both sides of the Dniester River. Chisinau, whilst exploring alternative supply routes through Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania, has found no resolution, leaving Transnistria’s future out in the cold. On 9 December, Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky declared a 30-day economic emergency, implementing resource conservation and restricting financial and economic activities. Krasnoselsky emphasised that the resolution lies with Moldova, urging the government in Chisinau to secure a new agreement with Gazprom. On 16 December, Chisinau followed suit with Prime Minister Dorin Recean warning Moldovans of a challenging winter ahead.
Despite these emergency measures, the region faces existential threats. Without free Russian gas inflows, the Transnistrian economy faces total collapse, and its crucial Curcigan power plant, which presently supplies 80 per cent of Moldova’s electricity, would cease operations. Victor Parlicov, former Moldovan energy minister, predicted severe consequences, including humanitarian crises, the collapse of the Tiraspol regime, and the potential reintegration of Transnistria into Moldova. As Parlicov noted, “if supplies stop, the Transnistrian region faces collapse.” Moldova, whilst prone to significant disruption, does not face the same threat of existential collapse, but would be susceptible to mass blackouts, in what Anton Filippov described as “what Ukraine is experiencing, though without missile attacks.”
Moscow’s response has been unequivocal. Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, warned on 18 December that any actions threatening Russian citizens, peacekeepers, or military assets in Transnistria would be viewed and responded to as an attack on Moscow itself. Zakharova stated that “Russia will act adequately to any provocations” in Transnistria. This represents a hardening of Russian rhetoric over Transnistria, with Moscow rejecting a call from Transnistrian parliamentarians to annex the region earlier this year. The shift in rhetoric reinforces Russia’s commitment to its regional influence over Transnistria, whilst simultaneously applying coercive pressure on Moldova’s pro-European government. Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed a desire to continue gas deliveries, if Kyiv is willing.
However, the shift in strategy from the Kremlin appears calculated. Allowing reduced gas supplies, as opposed to complete cessation, would perpetually preserve Transnistria’s dependency whilst preventing total state collapse. A collapse of the Tiraspol regime could precipitate Transnistria’s reintegration with Moldova, which would be a significant strategic defeat for the Kremlin. Moscow is currently waging a hybrid war on Moldova, evident in the widespread electoral interference in the recent presidential election, and utilises Transnistria as a means of continuing to exact coercive pressure on Chisinau and keep Moldova within its perceived sphere of influence. Chisinau has accused Moscow of exacting “gas blackmail” on its territory, as a means to destabilise the country sociopolitically and economically.
Moldova faces a complex test. Supporting Transnistria with alternative gas supplies, as proposed by Prime Minister Dorin Recean, would be exorbitantly costly. Chisinau rejected a proposal by Transnistria to issue a joint appeal to Moscow for, in the eyes of the Moldovan government, would “amount to de facto recognition of the separatist enclave”. Incompletion of energy infrastructure projects, such as the Vulcanesti-Chisinau high-voltage line from Romania, leaves Moldova precariously vulnerable to further energy blackouts, political destabilisation, and, thus, Russian coercive interference.
Tiraspol remains somewhat more hopeful. Krasnoselsky urged Transnistrians to ‘stop speculating’ over possible gas transit cessation, rather formulating the view that “neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to hinder the supply of natural gas” to Transnistria. Whilst this seems wishful thinking, Kransnoselsky and the Transnistrian government are mindful of their limited agency in such decisions. Kransoselsky concurred that “the ball is in the court of Moldovagaz, and the relevant officials in Moldova” with Transnistrian parliament speaker Alexander Korshunov suggesting that “matters here do not depend on Transnistria.”
Moscow’s utilisation of gas as a tool of coercion demonstrates the fragile interdependence between Transnistria, Moldova, Ukraine, and Russia. Should the current impasse persist, with no solution before New Year’s Day, it could mark the beginning of the end for Transnistria’s isolation, either through reintegration with Moldova or an alternative, perhaps desperate, geopolitical development engendered by the Kremlin.
As the transit deal reaches its expiration date, the impending gas crisis in Transnistria has the propensity to redefine the region’s political and economic landscape, potentially existentially. Whether it leads to reintegration, deeper Russian entrenchment, renewed military operations, or a new regional status quo, the crisis will undoubtedly change the internal and external dynamics of Transnistria for years to come.
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