New German Parliament, New Challenges To Face
Germany has entered a new political era following the elections of February 23, marked by a high level of polarisation in the world's third largest economy. A new government is emerging while old leaders are falling. The recomposition of the political landscape is revealing and poses unprecedented challenges for the country as it scrambles to shore up internal divisions whilst the western world crumbles around it.
One of the big winners was the centre-right, represented by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CDU-CSU), which became the largest bloc. Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, is positioned as the next chancellor, so much so that he has already begun scheduling economic and defence policy with considerable success. His conservative profile and his history of fierce rivalry with Angela Merkel have generated a change in his party, although not without controversy. Merz's strategy, which included accepting support from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in a non-binding resolution to close borders to asylum seekers, weakened the traditional "firewall" that kept the far-right isolated. However, the proposal didn’t pass in a second vote after the rejection of part of his own party and protests from the public and from Merkel herself.
Merz now faces the challenge of toning down his image to convince other political forces that his shift to the right does not pose a threat to German democracy. With the new parliamentary configuration, the CDU-CSU will need the Social Democratic Party (SPD) as a governing partner. “Grand coalitions” are nothing new in Germany, but the question is how willing the two parties will be to share power again. The prospect of paralysis fuelling AfD support will likely, however, overcome their considerable differences.
The other dominant protagonist of these elections is the AfD, which has established itself as the second strongest political force. Its growth has been impressive in just three years, with immigration as its primary banner. Its rise has been accompanied by controversy, including the vocal support of figures such as Elon Musk and the US vice president, J.D. Vance, who has been accused of interfering with the elections. As the main opposition bloc, the AfD will have more visibility than ever and greater weight in the political debate — something it has long sought.
However, the party remains under scrutiny for its links to Nazi groups and the influence of Vladimir Putin on its stances. Its eurosceptic stance, which includes proposals such as leaving the European Union and eliminating the euro, is a cause for concern both inside and outside Germany. Even so, its constant growth in recent electoral cycles has given it a legitimacy that was unthinkable a decade ago and has strengthened its sway in an increasingly polarised society.
Among the worst performers is the SPD, which had led the government since 2021. Its stay in power was brief after years of absence since the administration of Gerhard Schröder (1998-2005). The election result is a hard blow for the Social Democrats. Olaf Scholz will have to leave quickly and without much ceremony while the formation of the new government is negotiated. The possibility of once again being junior partners in the next administration will be a bitter pill to swallow for the SPD, whose image as a leading party may have been irreparably damaged by falling to third place.
Meanwhile, the Greens have managed to hold out better than other parties of the governing coalition, but they will also have to spend months in front of the drawing board. Their moderation in recent years has allowed them to grow, but their rigidity in negotiations has hampered faith in their ability to govern. If they want to have any weight in the next legislature, they will have to learn to be more flexible and pragmatic.
On the left, Die Linke managed to stem the flow of votes to the BSW split-off party, which had adopted a more nationalist discourse. Thanks to its skilful handling of social media and its positioning as a counterweight to the AfD, it managed to overcome the 5% threshold and maintain its parliamentary representation. This gives it some breathing room at a time when the far right continues to gain ground.
The party which took the hardest hit was the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which failed to make it into parliament. The last time this happened was in 2013. Its collapse is another sign of the growing polarisation in Germany.
Germany is at a political crossroads. Polarisation has intensified, and the new parliament reflects this. The stable negotiation and compromise for which Germany had become famous since the fall of the Berlin wall will be more difficult than ever, though Merz seems to have gotten off on the right foot.
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