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Writer's pictureVictor Elizondo

Mexico: at a Kafkaesque Crossroads of Her Own Making



With the beginning of a new presidency, parties in Mexico are positioned in different places on the political board. Party identity is lost in the country. The ideological lines that once divided fierce rivals no longer exist. What does it mean to be right, center or left in Mexico? What value does that have now? The truth is that one no longer knows up from down and it shows in the speeches of politicians who border on fanaticism and cultists of personality. Below is a description of how the six national parties enter the next six years led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, the first woman in the Mexican executive.


Let's start with the party in power, which retained the presidency with an overwhelming majority last June. The National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) enters the new government with impressive force, holding not only the presidency but also the majority in the senate, the chamber of deputies, in governorships and local congresses. Everything sounds perfect for this party, which is relatively young, having emerged in 2014 and reached the executive and legislative branches in 2018. Largely due to the image of its controversial and charismatic leader and founder, the outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador; he assures that once he leaves the presidency he will leave politics. The truth is that his political influence will cast a long shadow in his party and beyond. MORENA will have to learn to do politics without its most valuable asset. This party must be very careful, because despite being the dominant force, almost hegemonic, the truth is that the dependence it has on its leader can cost it dearly. Not everything is eternal, the internal unity that this party broadcasts to the citizens can change overnight due to the turbulences generated with each change of leadership. MORENA must be careful not to become a political Icarus if it intends to retain its power.


Let's now talk about its allies, the Labor Party (PT) and the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM). Both parties have gained a lot from MORENA. The PT has been a natural ally of Lopez Obrador since the 2000s and has been at his side in every election. After more than 30 years of existence and slipping into irrelevance in 2015, the PT now enjoys the slice of power that MORENA has granted it for its eternal loyalty. The PT, being a clientelist party, will continue to act as little but an appendage for its paymaster. The PVEM is the surprise of the moment. Another party with more than three decades under its belt that is equally irrelevant and that has also sold itself to the highest bidder since the 2000s. It has made electoral alliances with the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and now MORENA, with whom it has made quite a profit. After the 2024 elections, it will consolidate itself as a significant force in the Chamber of Deputies, due to the coalition agreements with MORENA in the distribution of proportional representation seats. What once seemed impossible now stands out with bewilderment, the PVEM with power, is something that intrigues and not in a good way, knowing that this is also a clientelist party that will do everything its patron tells it to do.


Let's move on to the opposition, both the National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) are in serious trouble. Both parties were historically antagonistic. The PRI governed Mexico for 71 uninterrupted years and PAN during all that time was its strongest opponent in a hegemonic system that collapsed with the election of 2000. That year PAN came to power and managed to renew its stay in 2006. The PRI returned to power in 2012 and the rivalry between both parties seemed to return in full. It was not until the 2021 midterm elections that Mexico experienced the unthinkable, an electoral coalition made up of PAN, PRI and the now extinct Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). The traditional right, the center and the left parties united. This doesn't seem far-fetched in Europe, but from this point on, ideology ceased to be relevant, giving way to electoral pragmatism due to the credibility crisis that had been festering among citizens. The union of these parties concentrated the opposition vote but did not benefit their members. It is necessary for them to reconfigure their strategy since their political influence has diminished.


The last actor to mention is the Citizens Movement (MC), a party that presented itself as the third way in 2024. For a long time, MC was a satellite party and despite its results alone being notable, and governing Jalisco and Nuevo León, its isolationism does not help it grow in influence. Its rivalry with PAN and PRI benefits MORENA more than MC itself. This party must also recalibrate after the elections in order to prosper in the brave new landscape of modern Mexico.


Here is how the Mexican political chessboard stands. The parties will have three years to prepare for the midterms. Sacrifices will have to be made on both sides if they intend to retain or obtain power. Mexico must be prepared for what is coming.



Image: Wikimedia Commons/EneasMx

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