Marine Le Pen's Conviction: What's Next for France?

On March 31st, 2025, France experienced a political "earthquake". The figurehead of Rassemblement National (RN), Marine Le Pen, was found guilty of embezzling European Union funds to pay staff who worked for her party and was barred from public office for five years, a sentence that look set to shatter her hopes of entering the Elysée Palace. Labelled as both a "political victory" and a "political persecution", this article takes a step back by analysing how the court's ruling will reshape the country's political landscape.

Le Pen is widely considered the most promising candidate for the 2027 presidential election thanks to the resurgence of right-wing influence in Europe and the public dissatisfaction with Emmanuel Macron. The restructuring of the global supply chain and the influx of immigrants and asylum seekers in recent years create a favourable climate for the spread of right-wing politics in Europe, as exemplified by the electoral success of Giorgia Meloni in Italy and the AfD in Germany. Domestically, President Macron's failure to effectively address the economic crisis led to his lowest approval rating in January 2025, leaving the door wide-open for Le Pen's Élysée Palace bid in 2027. The verdict brings RN's political momentum to an abrupt halt and is undeniably a major political setback for the right-wing movement in France.

The future of the RN without the leadership of Le Pen remains both certain and uncertain. Opinion polls show that the incumbent President of RN and Le Pen's protégé, Jordan Bardella, may well succeed her if she loses her court appeal, effectively ending the Le Pen dynasty. While it is true that Bardella, a young and social media-friendly politician, is popular among the younger generation, the public remains sceptical of his capabilities as he is only 29 and has limited political experience. In addition, although RN voters are generally loyal to the party given the consistent turnout rate in elections, some of them, especially the older generation, vote for the party primarily because of the Le Pen name. Installing Bardella as leader, therefore, risks the loyalty of RN’s core supporters.

We know who the losers are, but who stands to benefit the most from this political earthquake? France has maintained a strong leftist tradition since the French Revolution, with its citizens deeply committed to liberty, equality, and fraternity. Polarisation in recent years has pushed the romantic pursuit of social justice and equality to a new height, as exemplified by the growing popularity of the far-left in its present socialist-populist form under Jean-Luc Mélenchon. In the 2024 legislative election, the left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, secured the second-largest vote share in the first round and successfully won the most seats in the second round. With Le Pen's defenestration and given broad dissatisfaction with Macron and his party Renaissance, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, therefore, has a better chance than ever before of reaching the final round of the presidential election, if not winning it altogether.

One should, however, never underestimate RN's resilience. This crisis proffers no end of opportunity. Shortly after the conviction, the party condemned it as a political prosecution by the left and positioned itself as the "defender of democracy". The party also launched the "Save Democracy" campaign (Sauvons La Démocratie) and plans to organise multiple demonstrations. Much like US President Trump's case, these actions may create a sympathetic sentiment among voters, especially since over 60% of interviewees in France believe that democracy does not function well in the country following Le Pen's conviction, an argument that aligns with the anti-status quo rhetoric of the party. These sentiments could benefit the party at the next election.

The ruling could also push RN to propose even harsher immigration and economic policies in retaliation if it wins the next presidential election. The President of France holds immense power, such as the authority to appoint the Prime Minister and to dissolve the National Assembly. An RN President, be it Le Pen, Bardella, or someone else, could eviscerate France’s left-leaning political ecosystem by utilising the Élysée Palace’s extraordinary executive power to push for policies that the party would not have considered before Le Pen's conviction as revenge against its political opponents, similar to President Trump's ongoing culls. These could further polarise French society, weakening its role as a crucial driver of European integration.

Regardless of how various political parties react to this upheaval, Marine Le Pen's conviction has undeniably reshaped France's political landscape. While it remains uncertain which party will eventually occupy the Élysée Palace, one thing is clear: France is in dangerously uncharted waters.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/President of the Russian Federation (kremlin.ru)

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