Japan and its imperfect hegemony - a peculiar political panorama
For years, Japan has been experiencing an awkward mutation in its government leadership. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is the right-wing political force that has governed the country since 1955, being in opposition only on two brief occasions, from 1993-1996 and from 2009-2012. Japan’s political system can therefore be classified as hegemonic in character, although clearly imperfect. What do I want to emphasize with this last point? Well, the position of Prime Minister of Japan has the peculiar characteristic of being a position that does not have a fixed term, meaning there is no limit to how many years one can hold this position. Though one might conclude that one individual could occupy the role for an extended period of time, since 1954, only four prime ministers have lasted five years or more in office: Eisaku Satō (1964–1972), Yasuhiro Nakasone (1982–1987), Jun'ichirō Koizumi (2001–2006), and Shinzō Abe (2006–2007 and 2012–2020). Japan has had three prime ministers since 2020, underlining that the Liberal Democratic Party is not the force it once was.
The opposition in Japan, conversely, seems to have entered a new phase of dynamic self-discovery. In 2017, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) was founded, following a split from the Democratic Party ahead of that year’s general election. At the end of 2020, the party was re-founded after a merger with the majorities of the Democratic Party for the People and the Social Democratic Party, as well as some independent legislators. Since then, it has solidified as the main centre-left party in Japan and, as of 2024, it is the second largest party in parliament. This new political force still has a long way to go and a lot to learn in order not to make the mistakes of its predecessors in their attempt to become a counterweight to the Liberal Democratic Party and come to power. In 1993, an eight-party coalition government was formed but collapsed eleven months later. The last alternation was under the Democratic Party, which governed from 2009 to 2012, having three prime ministers in that period. There is, I dare say, a reason underlying Japan’s imperfect hegemony.
In the face of all this, we can see that no matter how much the political board is shaken, the impermanence of Japan’s leadership remains. The leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party must re-evaluate its strategy if they want to remain in power. This will undoubtedly be even more difficult after the elections of October 27 of this year in which the LDP recorded its second worst result in history. The Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the centrist Komeito party, lost the majority. The opposition parties have managed to gain a parliamentary majority. However, it remains to be seen whether they can form a coalition, not to mention whether it will be stable. The political panorama facing Japan is, in a word, complex. Adding to this is the stagnation of the extreme left forces and the arrival in parliament of two extreme right parties.
There is no doubt that Japan is entering a new political era due to the internal leadership instabilities of each party. Whatever happens and whoever governs, the citizens of Japan will certainly demand a lot from the incoming government, beginning with the expectation that it will last the full four years. The beginning of this legislative term may generate more questions about the current composition of the Japanese electoral system and whether it should be modified given the volatility of recent years. We must not forget that with too many elections, citizen fatigue and discontent is generated and hypothetical early elections in less than 4 years would undoubtedly negatively impact Japanese politics.
Image: Wikimedia Commons/Basile Morin
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