Israel’s War on Lebanon Ended as Chaotically as it Started: Victory or Humiliation?
Israel, a regional power often lauded for its technological prowess and political dominance of the region has once again met its match this year, in Lebanon's Hezbollah. Israel’s longtime foe has once again earned its stripes by standing toe to toe with the IDF and demonstrating its recent precision capabilities. Weapons like the Rased-1 drone, Russian Kornet, Iranian Toophans, and Fateh-110 missiles proved key in preventing any major breakthroughs north of the Galilee region to the south of the Litani river.
The recent ceasefire, not unlike the ceasefire following the 2006 war, is once again proving to be a costly and humiliating ordeal for Israel who, despite claiming victory, is currently faced with the prospect of withdrawal and fatigue.
Hezbollah lawmakers like Hassan Fadlallah have been directly involved in the ceasefire negotiations brokered by the US and France. Evidently, the peace process is not on Israel's terms, as it involves concessions related to ending the occupation in southern Lebanon, and the return of civilians to southern Lebanon. These concessions echo against the backdrop of many Israeli civilians who are visibly shaken and outraged at the Netanyahu administration for failing not only to destroy Hezbollah's capability to wage war, but for allowing them to exist as a significant military force in Lebanon.
Hezbollah's capacity to wage war is very much intact. According to Reuters, Israel is already accusing Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire agreement by moving its missile teams and weapons crew into southern Lebanon. A beaten enemy isn't by convention supposed to have the means to continue waging war against a victorious foe. Pundits and opinion pieces online argue that Israel is victorious because of its complex strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah, and its many strikes that followed since, with the IDF claiming to have struck some 12,000 targets across Lebanon.
Whatever the outcome of Hezbollah's chain of command, or of its financial strongholds, the fact remains that just like 2006, Israel has been sent back to its starting positions. The IDF never had a problem with occupying and holding territory, as it famously had done in the Sinai Peninsula and currently with Syria's Golan heights. So why not Lebanon?
While military casualties are an evident and costly reality of war, it is by convention not the sole decider of battlefield success. Hezbollah's casualties during Israel's invasion from 1982 to 2000 were much higher than now, and Israel was forced to retreat due to internal pressure and military fatigue. It stands to reason that the IDF has temporarily stopped Hezbollah, falling far short of their initial goals.
While there is no doubt that Hezbollah has suffered devastating losses to its military command, its fighting force is still very potent. Most regional powers like Egypt and Jordan have been defeated at breakneck speed and forced into normalisation deals with Israel, but not Hezbollah, who continued fighting a static war of attrition until the announcement of the ceasefire. The intended outcome of the deal is to lay the groundwork for permanent peace initiatives in Lebanon and the wider region, but what's not being emphasised enough is that the ceasefire is only going to last 60 days.
Meaning there is no guarantee that both sides won't just return to striking each other once 60 days are over. Moreover, Israeli officials are already peddling the idea of returning to Lebanon in fear of Hezbollah's rearmament during the ceasefire. Once again, 60 days is a temporary arrangement, and the conflict may very well continue after or even before the expiration date.
Lebanon's Hezbollah has spun the narrative that heralds them as Lebanon's saviour and its only means of deterring Israeli aggression. This comes amid a nosedive in popularity for the already hated Lebanese government, starting in 2019 – following the “October revolution”. Such seismic shifts in political support can be compared to the PLAs performance in recent polls conducted in the West Bank. As can be surmised, resistance and war against Israel has become a favourable course of action for citizens of the Arab world who are disgruntled with the Abraham Accords and the war on Gaza. Just like abortion is critical to the American electorate, Israel is key to the Arab league and its broader populace.
Image: Wikimedia Commons/IDF Spokesperson's Unit Photographer
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