Is Kemi Badenoch Already Under Pressure?

As the new leader of the Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch faces two mammoth tasks. As Leader of the Opposition, she must mount an energetic challenge to a huge Labour majority. However, if she has her eyes on 10 Downing Street, uniting and reinvigorating the right under her leadership also stands as a vital obstacle to be overcome. 

Any incumbent party that watched the events of the last few years would have had a tough ride in the polls, but the Tories’ particularly shambolic performance was their nail in the coffin. Not only did living standards fall over the Parliament for the first time, but scandals and missteps left many with the sense that the party was out of touch.

While Labour scored an enormous victory, it was the right-wing, populist, Reform UK that paved the way for the Tory collapse. Nigel Farage’s riotous party gave many conservatives the chance to protest perceived failures on immigration, cost of living, and competency.

The election bloodbath left many members craving a leader to the right of the party, and Kemi Badenoch emerged from the fray. Her direct and pugnacious style made sense in holding an enormous Labour majority to account, which, combined with checking the typical right-wing boxes on matters like immigration, gave the Tories a chance to claw back their traditional base.

Yet, for many in the Conservative Party, her first few months have left much to be desired. 

Badenoch’s approach in terms of helping the party recover – which was shared by Sunak – is to take a deliberative approach to fixing the wounds left by the election. In January, she outlined a multi-year plan to MPs, delaying major policy announcements until 2027 while focusing on regaining voters’ trust in the near future.

The rationale goes that Tories should not jump into rash actions that further divide the party and dig themselves deeper into the political hole they have found themselves in. Nevertheless, this is unwise for Badenoch in the short term.

Reform UK are riding high in the polls and pose a very real threat to the established unipolar order on the right wing of British politics. Badenoch cannot afford to let Nigel Farage suck up all the political oxygen on her side of the spectrum. A recent poll from Find Out Now has Reform UK leading the pack at 27% of voters, ahead of Labour at 23%, and the Conservatives at 21%. Despite being just one survey, the Tories will certainly feel Reform breathing down their necks.

This latest poll has come as Nigel Farage’s party has kept up its momentum into 2025, even though Farage himself remains a polarising figure. Kemi Badenoch should try to seize the spotlight if she does not want to see her position weaken further. Though she has maintained a media presence, she has failed to galvanise the crucial supporters she has to swiftly reclaim.

Given Starmer’s waning popularity, Badenoch’s relative quietness should be cause for concern for her party. It is important to remember that the kind of splashes she is making are not necessarily the kind that the wider public will be picking up on. While she has had some solid performances at Prime Minister’s Questions and will continue to find her feet as she grows into the role, being good at debating in the Commons is not nearly enough to impress the public. 

One of Reform’s biggest strengths is taking the debate to certain Conservative voters disillusioned with post-Brexit politics. They have shown initiative that the Tories lack by capitalising on X and disruptive media such as GB News.

The Reform threat to Badenoch has also taken the form of fundraising. Disgruntled Tory donors have been flirting with the populist party more and more following its recent momentum. A recent fundraising event in London brought Reform over £1 million. There will be concern brewing among Conservative ranks that this is the beginning of a trend that could leave its coffers in a precarious state before the next general election.

William Hague once opined that the Conservative Party is “an absolute monarchy, tempered by regicide.” If its current queen continues to lack policies, outreach, and connectivity, it would not be surprising to find the party making a drastic switch before the next election.

It is still early days, and there is plenty of time before the next local elections in May, which will likely serve as a litmus test for how popular Kemi’s Conservatives are in relation to Labour and Reform. 

However, with the current direction of her party, it is unclear how she will be able to recoup lost support in the meantime. With the calamities of the last Conservative government still haunting the public consciousness, simply attacking Labour’s record since the election will not suffice. Kemi Badenoch must be brave and offer some real direction so that disillusioned voters can be persuaded to return.

The long-term, disciplined plan to bring the Conservative Party out of the political wilderness is noble, but at this rate, it is likely to keep them there longer. Putting off policy for a few more years will only keep Reform UK’s momentum up. The Tories will not be afraid to turn on their figurehead if things do not improve. So, if Kemi Badenoch plans on staying around long enough to develop a full platform, she should champion parts of it now.

Image: Flickr/House of Commons

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