The ongoing escalations in West Asia are straining India’s delicate balance. As the major conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, India finds itself with limited options, given its storied relationships with both Israel and Iran.
Iran started October by launching 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. It was prompted by Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and the killing of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. The same strike also killed IRGC Brigadier Abbas Nilforoushan, who was with Nasrallah. Iran was widely expected to retaliate following the assassination of Haniyeh. Their newly elected President, Masoud Pezeshkian told US media on the sidelines of the UN that Iran was encouraged to exercise restraint since a ceasefire in Gaza was purportedly within reach. The ceasefire did not materialise, and Iran was compelled to respond because Nasrallah was their main ally in the ‘axis of resistance’ and Haniyeh was assassinated inside Iran. Not responding accordingly would have incentivised Israel to escalate further.
Israel is evaluating its options for responding to Iran’s attacks. Its options range across striking Iran’s missile depots, oil sites, and nuclear facilities. Israel’s response to Iran’s attacks is likely to be more fierce than its response to Iran’s attacks in April. In April, Iran claimed it had informed the US in advance of its attacks, which the US denied. This time around, the US was aware but surprised at the intensity of the attacks. Iran has warned Israel that their response will be ever harsher. They have also warned the US that all their bases will be targeted if there is a joint response. The Biden administration’s messaging has been mixed and confusing so far. On the one hand, they want Israel to have a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Iran, and on the other it is backing Israel to strike back at Iran. It has kept two aircraft carriers and 43 thousand troops on standby in the event of an escalation.
India’s options are quite limited in this seemingly ever-spiralling conflict. Last week, after the killing of Nasrallah, there were spontaneous outpourings of grief in Kashmir and some Indian cities. The Indian government, for its part, has backed Israel. PM Modi held a phone call with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in which he stated that ‘Terrorism has no place in our world’. He also stated that it was crucial to prevent regional escalation and get the hostages back safely. He mentioned that India was ready to support the early restoration of peace and stability. These statements indicate that while India is happy to see Israel eradicate the threats it faces from Iran’s proxies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, it would not like a wider regional war and instead would back a ceasefire that pauses the war and secures the release of the hostages. However, given India’s limited influence over Israel’s retaliation, the early restoration of peace and stability is likely to be elusive, as the ladder of escalation is unpredictable and beyond India’s reach.
Although public opinion is turning in the world against Israel’s military action in Gaza, India cannot afford to abandon Israel because of growing strategic and defence ties. Israel is an important defence partner as India seeks to diversify away from Russia. In January 2023, India’s Adani Group acquired the Haifa port in Israel for $1.15 billion in partnership with local chemicals and logistics group Gadot. The Adani group has also developed extensive defence ties with Israeli firms. In 2018, Adani Defence and Israel’s Elbit Systems opened a joint $15 million venture in Hyderabad. The drones manufactured at this facility have been used by Israel in its military campaign in Gaza. Despite the robust ties between India and Israel, the former has not backtracked from its long-standing support for a two-state solution to this conflict.
Engagement with Iran
India has also maintained its engagement with Iran. Last week, two Indian navy ships and a coast guard vessel, INS Tir, INS Shardul, and ICGS Veera, reached the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas. The navy statement said it was a part of a long-range training deployment to the Persian Gulf. The statement also added that the Indian Navy was aiming to ‘enhance maritime security and interoperability’ between the Indian Navy and the Iranian navy. India's main concern is its energy security. Although its energy exports from Iran are negligible, the concerns revolve around the strategically located Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea where there have already been disruptions due to the constant attacks by the Houthis. Countries such as UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq are some of the countries that help India meet its energy needs. Price shocks due to energy supply disruptions can hurt the economy and the country’s working- and middle-class populations.
Iran is also an important partner in India’s strategy to gain influence in Central Asia. In May this year, India and Iran signed a 10-year agreement to develop the Chabhar port. India promised to invest $120 million in operating the port apart from another $250 million credit line for developing the port. The Chabhar Port is an important part of India’s plan to extensively establish trade ties with Central Asia, bypassing the Gwadar port in Pakistan. It is also part of the proposed International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multi-mode transport project envisioned by Russia. The project aims to connect India to Europe by reducing the transit time and can link the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf to Russian ports. The US has threatened Indian companies participating in the project with the ‘the risk of sanctions’. A war between Israel and Iran will compel India to choose sides. The I2U2, the grouping of India, UAE, the US, and Israel formed to tackle challenges such as energy, food, water, and health security, has taken a backseat due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
The US for its part can utilise India’s close relations with Israel and Iran to de-escalate the conflict since it does not trust either Russia or China. Domestic political compulsions and the upcoming election may force the Biden administration to overlook this possibility. The war threatens to derail the economic opportunities India is pursuing in West Asia and ultimately limits the options India has to pursue its interests in the region without significant repercussions.
Image: Wikimedia Commons/Prime Minister's Office
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