The news that Kamala Harris will be taking over as the new democratic candidate has turned this election on its head. Whether it will work in the Democrats favour or against them, remains to be seen. While voting intentions may change across the country, key swing states are what really decide presidential elections in the US. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina are the ones to watch this year.
If Harris won all these states, she would almost certainly win the presidency. These states can broadly be broken down into three categories by their geographical area. Each category differs greatly from one another, and each will require a different approach to be won over. So, I’ve broken down each of these states to see how she could win them, or where she potentially might struggle.
The Deep South - Georgia & North Carolina
Target Groups: African Americans, ‘Double-Haters’ and Gen Z
Defining Issues: The Economy and Threats to Democracy
Georgia is one of the youngest states in the US and along with North Carolina, has one of the highest African-American populations, groups which both poll well with Harris. Harris is already a hit with Gen Z who see her as someone who will inject some energy and passion into US politics. According to current estimates, Harris polls up to 20 percentage points higher than Trump amongst young people while Biden polled only 6 percentage points higher than his Republican counterpart. In North Carolina, a poll in March revealed 55% of voters were ‘double haters’ who wished there were other options for the candidacy other than Trump and Biden. A shake up of the ticket, no matter who it is, is likely to create some enthusiasm and intrigue amongst voters in North Carolina.
Amongst African American and Hispanic voters, where Biden has been haemorrhaging support, she polls 53 and 24 percentage points higher than Trump, respectively. A candidate’s race can have massive implications on voting intentions. In 2008, 95% of African Americans voted for Obama, undoubtedly helping Democrats to win the election, and North Carolina for the first time since 1976. The economy is the most important issue for African American voters so any attempt to win back their support will require a clear emphasis on her plans to bring down the cost of living and get the economy back on track.
The Sun Belt - Arizona & Nevada
Target Groups: Hispanics and Moderates
Defining Issues: Immigration and Abortion
A rapidly increasing Hispanic population and expanding capital city helped facilitate a win for the Democrats in Arizona and these trends are set to continue by the time the 2024 election rolls around. Wavering support for Democrats amongst Hispanics in Nevada meant Biden only won by a tiny margin in 2020, but Harris polls better with Hispanic voters than Biden, giving her a fighting chance of keeping the state.
Immigration has become a priority for voters in Arizona, a policy area where Harris has had little success during her term as VP. To win over Arizona voters, Harris must focus on talking about her aims to invest more in border security and emphasise her commitment to cutting back immigration.
The issue of abortion is of huge importance to voters in these states. Arizona’s Supreme Court recently ruled an 1864 law banning abortion, including in cases of rape and incest, was constitutional. Despite Democrats managing to repeal the ban, the ruling angered many in the state where a majority support access to abortion. Many moderates may well shift towards Harris, as well as independents, who are concerned about the rise of extremist policies. In Nevada, an overwhelming majority of adults also support access to abortion. Harris’ focus on the issue and experience fighting for reproductive rights could prove pivotal in winning over Arizona and Nevada voters.
The Rust Belt – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Target Group: White Working-Class
Key Issue: The Economy
The demographic characteristics of rust belt states will pose the biggest challenge for Harris as she doesn’t poll well with white working-class voters and lacks the appeal Biden had as a Pennsylvania native. If Biden lost these states, he would almost certainly lose the election. Harris, however, could win without them, provided she won every other swing state, a big ask.
Harris’ approach to the economy will be key, as this is the most important issue here by quite some margin. Currently, only 29% of voters nationwide think Harris would do a better job at handling inflation than Trump, a statistic she will need to overturn. The trend in the last two elections has been if you win one of the rust belt states, you win them all. This could change in this election. While Pennsylvania looks increasingly out of reach, some polls but Harris ahead of Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan.
If anything’s clear, it’s that the race to the White House is going to be tight. With Trump leading most polls, Harris is still the underdog in this race and her victory would come as a surprise to many, but politics hasn’t exactly been following the status quo as of late. Who’s to say the outcome of this election will be any different?
Image: Lawrence Jackson/The White House
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