Today (26 October), Georgia is holding parliamentary elections that are crucial for the nation's political trajectory and its relations with both the European Union and Russia. This election will be the first conducted under a fully proportional representation system, introduced through constitutional amendments in 2017. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, which has been in power since 2012, is now contending with a coalition of pro-European opposition parties. The government frames this election as a critical juncture for Georgia, presenting it as a choice between "peace and war," while the opposition highlights it as a decision between embracing democratic Western values or yielding to authoritarian pressures from Russia.
After the Rose Revolution in 2003, Georgia embraced a democratic and pro-Western path. However, in the last five to six years, the country has been strengthening its relations with Russia and has recently implemented several policies that suggest a pivot away from the West towards closer connections with Russia and China. Notable examples include increased trade with Russia and the selection of a Chinese-Singaporean consortium for the construction of the Anaklia port. This shift occurs despite Georgia being granted EU candidate status in December 2023, which was subsequently suspended due to new laws enacted by the Georgian government.
In recent months, Georgia has enacted several laws that are inconsistent with the EU’s acquis, particularly the controversial “Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence.” As a result of these actions, the EU integration process for Georgia has been suspended and will remain so as long as the current political trajectory persists. This was the conclusion reached by the European Council, which represents the Heads of State and Government of the 27 EU Member States, on 27 June 2024, stating that the developments in Georgia have effectively stalled the country’s accession process to the European Union.
The introduction of this new legislation and its labeling as a Russian agent law may certainly be justifiably viewed by the EU as counterproductive to the continuation of further EU accession negotiations between Brussels and Tbilisi, as it significantly impacts freedom of expression, diversity, and other core democratic principles. However, this analysis overlooks two essential factors: The influence of foreign NGOs is viewed as dangerous and antidemocratic by a significant number of Georgians, alongside the ruling Georgian Dream party. This is because such institutions and foundations often promote foreign policy agendas that do not primarily serve the interests of Georgians, but rather prioritize the intentions of predominantly Western states.
Moreover, several key politicians and officials who held important positions during the presidency of Mikheil Saakashvili transitioned from active politics to leadership roles within these NGOs following the power takeover in 2012 by the current ruling party and the richest and most powerful man in Georgia, Bidzina Ivanishvili. In this sense, influential former politicians and close allies of ex-president Saakashvili, who openly supported the Euro-Maidan in 2013, are effectively operating in the background as a form of covert opposition. The enactment of the agent law serves, according to the narrative of the Georgian Dream, to limit the influence of this covert opposition and the involvement of foreign, ostensibly state actors, in order to ensure political stability in the country. This is intended to prevent Georgia from being drawn into a conflict with Russia through externally orchestrated, domestic, anti-Russian mobilizations, as was the case in Ukraine.
Georgian voters will head to the polls on October 26 for elections deemed crucial by both the government and the opposition. The outcomes of these elections, along with Georgia's foreign policy direction, will significantly influence the future of the region. The forthcoming elections in Georgia are more uncertain than any in recent history. The ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party has been experiencing a decline in popularity, currently polling at 34.4%.
In contrast, the opposition is divided, with no single party able to surpass GD in voter support. Consequently, GD is expected to leverage all available resources to secure a victory. Unless the opposition unites into a single bloc, GD may continue to hold the position of the most influential party in parliament, even if it does not achieve a majority of seats.
The outcome of these elections could have lasting implications for Georgia's EU candidacy status, which was granted in December 2023 contingent on progress in key areas. The results may also influence Georgia's geopolitical alignment in a region marked by tensions between Western aspirations and Russian influence, but more about this in a separate article.
Image: Jelger Groeneveld/Flickr
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