The State of Play: After the landmark elections in Georgia and Moldova, both republics still face a treacherous path towards full EU membership. Unfortunately, the political situation in Georgia has not stabilised after the parliamentary elections due to alleged electoral fraud by the ruling party, Georgian Dream, and Russian interference. President Salomé Zourabichvili, the EU, some of its member-states, the USA and the united Georgian opposition have decided to reject the legitimacy of the elections. The result was a call for extensive demonstrations and protests aimed at taking the fate of the country into their own hands and constructing a united front against an alleged Russian destabilisation campaign. The following considerations will focus less on the alleged corruption and fraud that occurred during the elections in Georgia - given that the Georgian authorities have not substantiated these allegations - instead outlining roadmaps for where the Republic of Georgia could take its foreign policy in the future.
As far as Georgia's geostrategic orientation, the government of Georgia, the European Union, the United States of America, and, to a lesser extent, the autonomous Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are relevant stakeholders. The geographical location of the Caucasus republic and the various interests of the parties mentioned imply a multivectoral approach to Georgia's international relations aimed at fostering a foreign policy focused on cooperation and growth. During my stay in Tbilisi in October 2024, I had the opportunity to engage with individuals from various backgrounds regarding current issues in Georgian politics, both domestic and foreign. However, in line with the focus of this article, I will concentrate on the foreign policy components and present, neutrally, the following three scenarios:
Strengthening Ties with the European Union and NATO: Georgia could pursue a strategy aimed at deepening its integration, primarily with the European Union and secondly with NATO. This would involve aligning its political, economic, and security policies with Western standards, seeking membership in these organisations, and enhancing cooperation in areas such as defence, trade, and democratic governance. This scenario would likely be supported by pro-European factions within Georgia and could lead to increased stability and investment.
Balancing Relations with Russia: Georgia adopts a balanced approach, seeking to maintain a working relationship with Russia whilst also engaging Western partners. This could include pragmatic economic cooperation with Russia, particularly in trade and energy, while still pursuing European integration. This approach might be seen as a way to reduce tensions and avoid direct confrontation, appealing to those who prioritise economic stability.
Regional Cooperation and Engagement with Neighbours: Georgia could focus on enhancing regional cooperation with neighbouring countries in the South Caucasus and beyond. This scenario would involve fostering partnerships with Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as engaging with Turkey and Iran, to address common challenges such as security, trade, and energy. By positioning itself as a regional hub for dialogue and cooperation, Georgia could strengthen its influence and promote stability in the region.
What are the prospects for success?
The probability of membership in the aforementioned alliances aside, a potential accession of Georgia to NATO could particularly undermine Russia's security interests. Economic integration with the EU can be both a curse and a blessing for the parties involved. Georgia is economically, culturally, and recently also politically locally integrated, especially in terms of the relationships between Sukhumi (the capital of Abkhazia) and Tskhinvali (the capital of South Ossetia), not to mention the Russian Black Sea port currently under construction in Ochamchire, Abkhazia.
Beijing is a newcomer to this tangled web. Just recently, a licence was granted to a Chinese-Singaporean consortium for the expansion of the port in Anaklia (Georgia). These various transnational entanglements clearly necessitate a balanced foreign policy. Georgia shares an 894-kilometre-long border with Russia, and a medium-to long-term separation from Moscow is not only unrealistic due to its geographical location but also not in the interest of the Georgian population and the ruling party. This is a crucial factor that was repeatedly emphasised during my discussions with members and officials of the ruling Georgian Dream party. Georgians desire balanced relations with their neighbours, including Russia. An accelerated EU membership that ignores this foreign policy compass will only plunge the country further into political chaos and aggravate opposing factions.
On the other hand, one must not overlook the fact that the EU, in times of increasing intra-European power struggles, has a legitimate interest in minimising the external influences on Tbilisi as part of Georgia's further integration into the Union. Various experts, a view I also share, do not expect either of the two countries to join the EU within this decade, as is the case with Moldova. Given that there are still 6, 7, or 8 years at best until full membership, one would think that reason should prevail, and all involved actors should come to the table to finally pave the way for a Georgia focused on cooperation, prosperity, and growth.
Image: Patrick René Haasler
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