After a summer of waiting for nominations, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen now has the list of names set to form the EU's new executive. The incoming custodians of the European project face a union ablaze with challenges. A geopolitical inferno burns on the continent and beyond, economic stagnation smoulders gently in the background whilst an emboldened far right fans the flames of popular discontent. Yet, as von der Leyen begins to hand out portfolios, she faces an impossible challenge. Not least that several of her would-be firefighters stem from states whose leaders have been all too willing to play with matches.
The first challenge for von der Leyen will be whom to pick for the key roles. The outcome of this exercise in tightrope walking will define EU politics for the next 5 years. The unfortunate reality is that there are fewer top portfolios than ambitious commissioners looking to fill them. National leaders, too, can take it as a snub if their nominee is handed a dud job. Getting the approval of the European Parliament, meanwhile, looks set to drag on throughout the autumn. However if von der Leyen wants to keep the union together, she must not give in to bureaucratic inertia; instead, she needs to carve out a vision and make the tough choices required to implement it.
The economic landscape is hellish; European GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter of this year. High debt levels, eroded consumer confidence and a slump in business investment have left the continent on a gloomy trajectory. One of the frontrunners to head up the Commission's economic policy is the Netherlands' Wopke "Mr No" Hoekstra, so nicknamed for his fiscal hawkishness. The other is Raffaele Fitto of Italy, a member of Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy. Von der Leyen would be wise to plump for the latter.
The choice between Hoekstra and Fitto embodies the central dilemma facing the new Commission: austerity versus investment, restraint versus ambition. While Hoekstra's rigid fiscal orthodoxy might appease the frugal north, it risks suffocating the already gasping southern economies. Fitto, despite his affiliations, represents a more pragmatic approach to economic management. His experience wrestling with Italy's gargantuan share of EU recovery funds could prove invaluable as the bloc grapples with its economic malaise.
Keeping Italy on side will prove important too, if the Commission is to face down Viktor Orbán and his ilk, a persistent threat to European integrity and security. Under von der Leyen, the outgoing Commission took a refreshingly combative approach to Orbán's contempt for the rule of law. She has already announced that the Commission will boycott Hungary's ongoing presidency of the European Council. The Commission must continue to stand firm. The renomination of Olivér Várhelyi speaks to Hungary's continued defiance of democratic norms; he should not be given a second term overseeing European enlargement.
Anti-democratic forces within the EU threaten to accentuate the external challenges facing the bloc. Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on, China's expansionist fiscal policy and increasingly assertive global posture demand a coherent response. The migrant crisis, far from abating, threatens to reignite populist fervour across the continent. Looming over all of this is the prospect of a second Trump presidency pulling away Europe's transatlantic safety blanket.
A muscular response is the best one when dealing with Vladimir Putin; a second Trump administration, meanwhile, would surely look more kindly on a Europe more committed to defending itself. A stronger stance on China would be welcome for the broader defence of the West and would be valuable bargaining chips with continental troublemakers and with Washington.
The newly created defence portfolio is a good sign; Valdis Dombrovskis, with his hawkish stance on Russia, has emerged as the leading candidate. But the Commission must go further than just talk; if the next five years do not see a substantial move towards a European Defence Union, then von der Leyen's second term will have failed.
The key to success will be moving quickly and turning talk into action, making sure the biggest hoses fall to the genuine firefighters, not the arsonists. Ursula von der Leyen must create a Commission that can function cohesively despite the presence of potential saboteurs. This means implementing robust accountability measures, fostering a culture of transparency, and building coalitions that can counterbalance disruptive forces.
This means pushing forward with deeper integration in critical areas like defence and economic policy, even in the face of resistance. It means standing firm against the erosion of democratic norms, both within and beyond the EU's borders. Ultimately, the success of von der Leyen's second term will be measured not just by how well she manages the fires of today, but by how effectively she fireproofs Europe for tomorrow.
Image: Flickr/FinnishGovernment
No image changes made.
Comments