America is set to head to the polls today. The word on nigh on every pollster’s lips is uncertain. America could turn one way or the other – continuing to consolidate its democracy, or towards autocracy and fascism. Despite the prospect of two very different visions emerging after this election, no matter what happens – whether Donald Trump wins or loses – America will be subjected to chaos.
Should Trump win, it is clear he will unleash anarchy on America, this is easy to understand. Throughout the campaign Trump has offered only one vision for the country should he regain the powers of the presidency: carnage. Laced through his speeches, social media tirades, policy documents, and the messages his acolytes push, is a detailed plan in which America will be remade to serve his interests.
The remaking of America as a vassal for Trump and his agenda will be a brutal exercise, bringing unprecedented discord to the country. It would lay waste to the rule of law and the numerous institutions which protect it. The Justice Department would be stripped of its independence, and then used as a tool to punish and prosecute political opponents. Other institutions will be gutted, bent and broken, leaving America without the guardrails that once protected it from Trump and his worst impulses. People who should be nowhere near government agencies will exercise control over them and their policy objectives. In the judiciary, even more radical judges, loyal to Trump and his agenda, will be installed, long outlasting Trump and his retributive agenda.
His immigration plan would deploy ICE, the national guard, and potentially even the military across America to conduct a brutal regime of mass deportations. To unleash this plan, the law will be thrown aside, militarised camps will be constructed along the border, homes and businesses will be raided and families will once again be ripped apart. The plan’s brutality would surpass anything modern America has seen before, and speaks of Trump’s desire to use any means necessary to satiate his hatred.
Trump will leave no corner of American society untouched in a second term. His agenda requires a complete reworking of the system to ensure he and his acolytes’ vision is realised. The economy will be razed to the ground by blanket tariffs. Longstanding freedoms – Miranda rights, labour laws, the right to vote, political protest, even marriage equality – will be severely curtailed, or virtually extinguished. Trump would resume a brutal regime of capital punishment by cruel and unusual methods. Women would face more pain and suffering as Trump directs the FDA to revoke access to Mifepristone and restricts basic access to reproductive healthcare. Women will die if this happens. The rest of America will be made sick by attempts to end the ACA and other health programmes Trump acolytes oppose.
American democracy and the constitution will buckle under just some of these actions. Fuelled by a desire to enact revenge, punish opponents, elevate sycophants, bend and break the instruments of the government, leave America less secure, and place himself and his interests at the heart of American society, Trump will lay waste to the foundational principles of America and its democracy.
Still, Trump could very likely lose the election. His plans are so radical, and brutal, America may never sign onto them and Kamala Harris could sweep to victory. Yet, in this scenario America would still be subjected to carnage. We know this because, alongside the agenda for a second term, Trump has lost an election before. He has provided us with a road map of what he will do to retain power, even after America has revoked it. When this happened, Trump refused to concede, claimed the election was stolen, and bedlam ensued.
This time around, before we even know who has won, Trump will begin to sew his chaos across America, again. Within hours of the polls closing, after just a few results, he will undoubtedly claim a ‘beautiful’ victory. Then when the electorate turns against him, he will claim a mass fraud has been committed – that illegal immigrants have voted, companies have rigged machines, and election officials who administer the results are stealing the election once more.
With every passing hour Trump will grow more anxious and frenetic as the chance to end the caravan of legal proceedings slips away from him. As reality catches up with him, Trump will believe he has no choice but to unleash hell on America. In the days and months after the election Trump will stoke anger and violence. He will bring great pressure to bear on officials. He will parade out legal challenges, seeking to instil a belief that a free and fair election was neither free nor fair.
Where such a scenario ends is unknown. Much like the chaos of a second Trump term, how far Trump will take it is unpredictable. Still, every indication we have is that it will be worse than the first iteration, his remarks have grown increasingly violent and incensed by the idea of losing. Whether his second attempt to subvert the election works or not, is unknown. American democracy could buckle under a more sustained effort, and voters may never trust elections in the same way again.
Importantly, this scenario, as aforesaid, is not some far flung idea. Trump has laid out this playbook before. He has sent his supporters to intimidate poll workers and election officials on and long after election night. He has begged for votes and prepared alternative slates of electors. He sent a mob of his supporters carrying weapons, nooses and zip ties to the Capitol as Congress attempted to democratically transfer power. He has been impeached for all of this, and still, he stands ready to do it again – this time with an organised network that has prepared for a moment in which they don’t prevail.
Win or lose, Trump will reshape America. A victory would bequeath Trump a fragile system still recovering from his first presidency, which he will undoubtedly shatter. Enfeebled institutions would be hollowed out and bent to serve Trump’s vindictive wants. Freedoms will come under attack and America, and the use of force and violence may become the currency of Trump’s plans. A loss would unleash an unknown amount of disaster. America is more aware, but still fragile, incapable of discerning how to cope with a man unable to concede an election. How far Trump would go to regain power is unknown, but there are signs written in the past. Trump has lost before and incited political violence like America has rarely seen. Election officials, and members of congress, barely escaped the last test of American democracy in 2020. He has been impeached for the high crime of refusing to relinquish power after a free and fair election. What happens next is largely unknown, but chaos is likely, no matter the outcome.
Image: Flickr/Gage Skidmore
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