The streets in Chisinau are relatively quiet on the evenings of October 20 and 21, with no signs of protests and no Moldovan, Russian, or EU flags in sight. After a brief conversation with a former colleague from the German television station "WDR," there is also a sense of "disillusionment" here, as no demonstrations have been officially announced. The city of Chisinau seems to have come to terms with the outcome of the elections.
The elections in the small, multi-ethnic post-Soviet state of Moldova make the hearts of political analysts race with excitement, creating immense tension, much like a twelve-round boxing match, where the seemingly weaker boxer manages to turn the judges' scorecards in his favor with targeted strikes in the final minute of the last round, ultimately securing a narrow but well-deserved victory by points.
In a nutshell; the Moldovan diaspora is paving the way for the constitutional anchoring of EU membership, literally in the last remaining minutes, and the incumbent president Maia Sandu will face off against the runner-up Alexander Stoiangolo from Gagauzia, representing the Eurosceptic and pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), in a second round on November 3, 2024.
The referendum held on October 20, 2024, saw a turnout of approximately 42.44% of eligible voters by the end of polling, surpassing the required threshold of 33.33% for the vote to be valid. More than 240,000 votes were cast by Moldovans living abroad. The regions with the highest voter turnout included Dondusheni, Taraclia, Gagauzia, and Ocnita. A majority of Moldovan citizens voted "Yes" with 50.47% in favor of amending the Constitution to enshrine EU membership as a strategic objective for the country. In contrast, 49.55% voted "No," with a margin of approximately 14,000 votes between the two options.
Until late into the election evening, it seemed that the opposing votes would determine the outcome with a lead of about 9%. However, around midnight, the momentum shifted in favor of the EU supporters. This was due to the fact that the votes from the Moldovan diaspora were counted later than the ballots cast within the Republic of Moldova, owing to the time difference. Without the support of the diaspora, particularly those living in Western Europe and North America, the vote would not have favored a constitutional enshrinement of further EU integration and membership.
This primarily means two things: The majority of Moldovans living in the country who went to the polls potentially voted against a constitutional path towards the EU. The decisive factor is the Moldovans living abroad; they are the ones who paved the way for further Western orientation. This can be seen as both a positive and a sobering message and signal. The Moldovans abroad, who have experienced Western living standards, are aware of the advantages that further rapprochement with Brussels offers their compatriots at home. On the other hand, despite extensive promotional efforts, financial support, and many other measures, the alignment with the EU still does not resonate with a majority of Moldovans. This may be due to a comprehensive disinformation campaign by local oligarchs in collaboration with Russian strategists in Moscow, who have spared no effort to influence the outcome of the elections in favor of the Kremlin. More on this in a separate article.
Simultaneously, the presidential elections took place, where incumbent President Maia Sandu sought re-election. As of the latest counts, she secured approximately 41.91% of the votes but did not achieve the necessary majority to avoid a runoff election scheduled for November 3rd. Her main opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo, garnered around 26% of the votes. In the presidential election, voter participation exceeded 51%, marking an increase compared to previous elections. This turnout is particularly noteworthy as it surpassed the 45.7% recorded during the first round of the last presidential election in 2020.
Alexandr Stoianoglo, is the former General Prosecutor of Moldova and faces several legal issues, including corruption charges. He is running for the Socialist Party and is seen as a frontman for Igor Dodon, the former pro-Russian president. Stoianoglo struggles to gain support, particularly due to his ethnic background and the legal challenges he faces, therefore it is rather unlikely that he will beat President Maia Sandu in the second round. Should the voter base of the Eurosceptic Renato Usatii (just under 14% in the first round) and the pro-Russian Irina Vlah from Gagauzia, representing the Communist Party with nearly 6% of the votes in the first round, decide to vote against the incumbent President Sandu, the small Eastern European country could find itself in political chaos in less than two weeks. According to these projections, the pro-Russian camp would reach 46% of the votes, 6 percentage points ahead of the pro-Western bloc led by Maia Sandu.
Looking ahead to the parliamentary elections in July 2025, the presidential elections are crucial as the results may influence Russia's support for pro-Russian candidates. The Action and Solidarity Party, which is led by Maia Sandu, currently holds a majority in Parliament. However, they will need to find a political partner to form a stable pro-European coalition. The parliamentary elections are expected to be significant for advancing the reforms necessary for EU accession.
Image: Parliament of the Republic of Moldova/Flickr
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