Since June 2023, I have covered Polish politics for Europinion, beginning with the June 4th protests. Since then, Donald Tusk has returned to the Polish premiership through a shaky coalition of Tusk’s Civic Coalition, the Third Way and the New Left. Ever since then, Polish politics has been tense; one only needs recall the scenes of police officers entering the buildings of TVP - Poland's state broadcaster, as well as the sparring match between the President and the courts over the imprisonment of former Interior Minister Kamiński and Interior Deputy Minister* Wąsik - Kamiński’s right hand man. Recently, the Sejm voted to revoke the parliamentary immunity of Law and Justice (PiS) chairman Jarosław Kaczyński and former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro. Kaczyński’s immunity was waived so that he can face charges for destroying a wreath during commemorations for the Smoleńsk catastrophe, in which his twin brother, former President Lech Kaczyński, passed away, as well as for assaulting an activist. In response, Kaczyński made his first appearance on X, formerly Twitter (shock horror).
Given Poland’s constitutional settlement, wherein the presidency is separate from the legislature and the government is tied to Parliament, the elections in 2023 were only half of the battle. The presidential election in May 2025 will be the decisive endgame in Poland’s most vicious post-Soviet political struggle.
The two main parties in Polish politics, the Civic Coalition (KO) and Law & Justice (PiS), have chosen their candidates for the presidency, as President Duda reaches the end of his second term. As in 2020, the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, has again won KO’s candidature, having defeated Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski for the nomination.Having competed in a razor-tight election against Andrzej Duda five years ago, at a time when PiS was fresh off securing a majority in the 2019 elections, Trzaskowski seems confident about his chances in May, given the political shift in the country after the 2023 general election. In contrast to the rather stiff and tight-lipped Sikorski, Trzaskowski has the smooth rhetorical style required to be ‘Presidential’ and is relaxed in both Polish and English, not something that can be said of the departing President. Sikorski did, however, level a biting criticism at Trzaskowski, albeit in a metaphorical form, which rang true. The Foreign Minister commented that “if you were looking for a guide to Warsaw’s museum of modern art, even he would choose Mr Traszkowski, but if you were looking for a guide to the museum of Polish Military History” then he (Sikorski) was of more use. In simpler terms, I see a Macron in Trzaskowski — an overly liberal figure; what we need is a balance. Trzaskowski must toughen up a little and acknowledge the geopolitical discomforts of the world.
On the other hand, PiS has nominated Karol Nawrocki, the head of the Polish Institute of National Remembrance, framing him as a non-partisan candidate. Unlike Trzaskowski, Nowacki was not a widely known figure. Since Nawrocki’s nomination, KO has rectified this relative anonymity, not least by seeking to expose his alleged links to Polish gangsters and drug dealers. To be clear Nawrocki has been put forward as a constancy candidate by those who style themselves as defenders of Polish Christianity, morality, and integrity.
I was also surprised not to see Dominik Tarczyński take the nomination. Tarczyński has been touring various podcasts, such as the PBD Podcast, cultivating a profile, and is arguably one of the most recognisable faces in Polish politics, especially after now infamous interviews on Channel 4 and on Al-Jazeera with Medhi Hasan, among many others. Despite this, he was defeated by a political nobody. I cannot, of course, claim impartiality, but even from an objective perspective PiS seem to have chosen poorly.
The smaller parties, less significant in the presidential election than in the Sejm, have also fielded their candidates. The Speaker of the Polish Sejm and leader of the not-in-any-way-self-aggrandising Poland2050-Szymon Hołownia Party, Szymon Hołownia, has had an interesting impact on Polish politics. Despite his satirical bravado, his character is appreciated. He is the co-leader of the Third Way, a Party created through the merger of Poland2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), which is currently propping up Donald Tusk’s government as a coalition partner. This is Hołownia’s second bid for president. Poland2050 MP Mirosław Suchoń believes that Hołownia will be a truly non-partisan President, only serving the citizens. Meanwhile, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will have to answer to their respective party leaders, Tusk and Kaczyński. It is likely that the right-wing Confederation, fielding their former Prime Ministerial candidate Sławomir Mentzen, will voice the same almost apolitical message. Throughout the General Election campaign, they told every Pole that they were the non-establishment choice, outside of the two mainstream parties, and would never join a PiS coalition government.
These are the key “others” in the race for the Presidential Palace. If the last election is any indication, listing everyone else would lead us to some seriously undesirable choices (complete with awful haircuts!), which is not the type of leadership anyone wants to see near power in Poland.
All in all, Rafał Trzaskowski looks best set for the Presidency. He's been tried and tested, coming agonisingly close last time. He appears the most fluent candidate, even impressing us with some French when he met Emmanuel Macron in Warsaw. His social media campaign is very professional and engaging, much like the one run by Donald Tusk. On the other hand, Karol Nawrocki has remained largely out of the spotlight, and his background is more than concerning. However, who knows? Maybe Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s earth-shattering debut on X will carve the path for a glorious Nawrocki landslide.
I’d like to close this article with comments on Andrzej Duda’s Presidency. I have spent a long time discussing his actions, such as defying a clear electoral result in the General Election, appointing Mateusz Morawiecki as PM for an additional two weeks in late November 2023 and more. However, I’d like to acknowledge that as an international statesman he has been exemplary. He has had strong relationships with both President-elect Trump and President Biden, whilst maintaining a solid relationship with China.
In summary, Polish politics is about to face the final hurdle of its first EU era. Trzaskowski may seem set, but complacency is a non-starter, particularly in light of the astonishing annulment of the first round of the Romanian election, due to massive Russian interference. All Poles must be vigilant and engaged in the months leading up to May.
*In Polish, the official title is “Secretary of State”; however, it denotes a different level of seniority compared to the equivalent position in the UK. Deputy Minister is the closest equivalent.
Image: Wikimedia Commons/Henryk Kotowski
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