In the initial phase of the conflict between Israel and Gaza, China found itself aligned with regional partners Saudi Arabia and Iran. This alignment included condemning Israeli aggression, advocating for a negotiated settlement, and participating in joint conferences to express collective opposition. However, the dynamics shifted with the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, creating a complex situation for China.
China, as the world's primary exporter and a significant player in global shipping, has a substantial economic interest in ensuring the security of shipping lanes; the United States sought to leverage China's influence on Iran to curb the Houthi attacks, revealing the intricate diplomatic dance taking place between these nations.
Despite being a major stakeholder in Red Sea shipping lanes, China faced economic repercussions from the crisis. The reluctance to directly condemn the Houthis or link them to Iran led China to voice disapproval, emphasising the need to respect freedom of navigation and cease attacks on civilian ships.
Reports surfaced about China issuing a veiled, threatening, statement to Iran hinting at potential repercussions on Sino-Iranian business relations if Houthi attacks impacted Chinese interests. However, the true impact of this pressure remains uncertain, adding another layer of complexity to the situation.
In February, media outlets reported China sending three warships to the Red Sea, but it is crucial to note that such deployments are routine. China has dispatched over 150 warships to the Gulf of Aden since 2008. The three ships were deployed to replace a group of six that had sailed to the Red Sea in October, indicating a downgrade of Chinese forces in the region.
Examining China's influence over Iran reveals a nuanced picture. While China purchases the majority of Iranian oil and supplies weapons and surveillance equipment, converting this influence into meaningful leverage proves challenging. Most Iranian oil is purchased illicitly by private "teapot" refineries, as state refineries are cautious about breaching U.S. sanctions.
Economic stress in China further complicates the situation, as oil processing companies may be reluctant to forgo the deep discounts offered by Iranian suppliers. A disruption in the flow of Iranian oil to China has already occurred, stemming from a "stalemate" between Iranian oil suppliers and Chinese refineries over these steep discounts.
While China has committed to various investment projects in Iran, the actual implementation lags, and Iran falls behind other Middle Eastern nations in terms of Chinese foreign direct investment. This reveals the challenges China faces in translating its influence into tangible outcomes.
However, the United States continues to insist that China exerts pressure on Iran in the Red Sea crisis. Discussions between U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlighted Washington's belief that Beijing is not using meaningful leverage on Iran. The U.S. contends that Beijing is engaging with Iranians but remains cautious in commenting on the effectiveness of these efforts.
Amidst increased U.S. military strikes in the region, China grows more agitated about a potential escalation; Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasises Beijing's unease, stressing that the United Nations Security Council has not authorised the use of force against Yemen. He urges avoiding actions that contribute to heightened tensions in the Red Sea, emphasising the broader regional security risks.
China, feeling the pressure from disruptions to global shipping, recognises the potential threat of a wider conflict between the U.S. and Iran to its entire economic strategy in the region. Beijing asserts that a ceasefire in Gaza is the best way to de-escalate the situation, echoing the Houthis' statement that such a ceasefire would lead to an end to their attacks.
The U.S. insistence that China has an "obligation" to pressure Iran and restrain the Houthis raises questions when considering the U.S. refusal to use its more substantial influence over Israel. Despite having economic, military, and political leverage over Israel, the U.S. opts to send arms amid a brutal campaign against Gaza, a move criticised by legal experts and the International Court of Justice.
In this intricate geopolitical dance, China finds itself walking a fine line, balancing economic interests, limited influence over Iran, and a desire to avoid broader regional conflict. The complexities underscore the challenges nations face in navigating diplomatic waters amid global crises.
Image: Erfan Kouchari
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