The United States is experiencing one of its most impressive presidential elections in its history. These last few months have been full of surprising events that have shaken the political scene and generated reactions both inside and outside the nation. From the controversial presidential debate on June 27th, where the current Democratic President, Joe Biden, came out extremely weakened by his precarious presentation, to the attempted assassination of the former Republican president, Donald Trump, at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13th (a key swing state).
If this wasn’t enough already, now that President Joe Biden is no longer seeking re-election, he has given free rein and full support to his Vice President, Kamala Harris, who has already secured enough delegates to become the nominee of her party, becoming the first African-American woman to be the presidential candidate of one of the two major parties in the country. History is being made on both sides, and all of this seems to be the consequence of the sum of errors and successes of their leaders, who fight in a more polarizing way than in any other election.
Let's start by looking at the elements surrounding the Republican Party's candidacy. Former President Donald Trump continued to be the face of the party after his departure from the White House almost four years ago. His position has been so strong that he had no need to debate his opponents in the primaries, which he won with ease. If elected in November, Trump will be the second US. president to have a second non-consecutive term; Democratic President Grover Cleveland accomplished this in the late 19th century. Without a doubt, the party of Lincoln no longer exists, nor is there anything left of the legacy of Eisenhower, Reagan and the Bushes. A cult of personality has been generated within the party, of a man who presented himself as an “outsider” in 2015 and who, without previously holding public office, managed to come to power. This new party structure that emerged from the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement has taken permanent root, leaving no room for opposition. This is why Republicans seem more unified than ever. It is important to mention that Trump has become a figure on whom his party has become highly dependent, so although the former president has chosen the Ohio senator, JD Vance, as his new running mate, this does not imply that he will become the heir to Trumpism in 2028 (if Trump wins, he would not be able to run for a third term again). Adding to this analysis is the stark dilemma brought about by the assassination attempt against Trump.
This event is a clear consequence of the high polarization that the country is experiencing, and has surely stirred the waters, making his followers even more reactionary, with the events of January 6th, 2021 as testament to their volatility. The MAGA movement is stronger than four years ago, and Trump's speech moves his followers in ways that no other candidate has before. His chances of winning are high, but the question that continues to surround him in this election is what will he and his followers do if he loses again?
The Democratic Party is another story of surprises that generates both curiosity and doubts due to its rapid changes that seem divisive and at the same time controlled. Four years ago, Joe Biden presented himself to the country as the only candidate capable of defeating Trump. All factions of the party were unified around him, and he managed to defeat his rival and make history on several fronts. With victory in 2020, Biden became the 46th US President by winning the most votes in the history of the country, being the oldest candidate and the fifteenth vice president to win the presidency, the second Catholic as well, and the first to have a woman as vice president. His conciliatory speech and his more than 40 years of experience in politics made him a solid candidate to hold the position of president.
However, his age became his greatest burden in his quest for re-election. His multiple setbacks, both in speech and health, made Biden a visibly worn-out candidate and with these doubts arose within the Democratic ranks about whether he should continue as their candidate. In the end, the political pressure that surrounded the president took effect, making him the first president since Lyndon B. Johnson not to seek re-election. Biden gave his support to his vice president, Kamala Harris, creating not only a change of candidacy but a necessary generational change. The entire Democratic apparatus seems to have accepted this change, it remains to be seen if citizens trust Harris to reach the highest office in the US.
American politics, and its unique democratic process, has always been fascinating. This election brings with it new precedents as well as questions. As the respective presidential campaigns enter the crucial stretch of the race, we will begin to see how citizens react to this new electoral scenario. The political panorama is complex and in politics nothing is ruled out.
Image: Martin Falbisoner
Comments