Centrists In Decline, A Warning To Democracies

Illustration by Will Allen

We are just entering the second half of this decade and the political landscape in several countries seems to be increasingly bleak. Centrist leaders across the globe are disappearing from the political scene, through weariness or defeat, giving way to greater polarisation. These leaders and their parties have long dominated electoral preferences, while symbolically being responsible for stopping the waves of extremism on both sides of the political spectrum. Regrettably, these waves have become strong tides and even tsunamis of such magnitude that they have devastated classical electoral mathematics, causing greater divisions in the societies they claim to govern.

Centrism has fallen into disgrace. Defenders of the formerly consensus ideology must reflect on where to take their pragmatism in a world where politics has ceased to be governed by traditional categorisations. In the following lines, I highlight where and how centrism, broadly understood, has lost ground.

Joe Biden’s defenestration is as good a starting point as any. Without an apparent heir, the Democratic party will be subjected to a progressive-liberal civil war for the next four years. Although there are figures who have positioned themselves as strong sells for 2028, the truth is that this party must reconfigure its discourse by learning from its past successes and transposing it to the present. Its counterpart, the Republican Party, has completely ceded its platform to the political fanaticism of the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement, so there is no reference for centrism in this party and it is highly dubitable whether there ever will be again.

To the north, Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Prime Minister of Canada is similarly emblematic. After almost 10 years in power, the Canadian leader suffered such a total deterioration that the Liberal Party he revived seems reduced to ashes, again. The defeat of this party seems imminent against a Conservative Party that has embraced the hardest possible line on traditional ideals. In this country, we see how the centre is diluted in a pitched battle between a rancid conservatism and a headless liberalism.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron faces a political war on two fronts. Both extremes, the New Popular Front on the left and the National Rally on the right, are trying to sabotage his government, by exploiting his nonexistent majority. This is a consequence of the serious wear and tear that the French president has suffered throughout his two terms. His challenges are further aggravated, much like Biden’s and Trudeau's were, by the absence of a successful heir for the 2027 elections, which could likewise mean the end of his party once he leaves power.

Illustration by Will Allen

Moving from leaders to political parties, I now seek to establish that, absent centrist political forces, high polarisation generates blockages in democracies.

This is the case in Spain, where there is currently no centrist party that serves as a counterweight between the left and far left represented by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Sumar respectively, and the right and far right represented by the Popular Party (PP) and Vox respectively. Ciudadanos tried to fill the void, expanding from a Catalan base as a moderate force - but upon trying to grasp real power by blocking the possibility of a coalition government in 2019, its doom was imminent. A series of communication debacles and an identity crisis finally caused its disappearance after the 2023 elections. Without such an actor, Spanish politics is sustained by frail pacts that collapse at the slightest pressure, leading to elections after elections.

One last case to mention is Mexico, where, although ideological lines have practically dissolved, polarisation is stronger than ever. Currently, the officialist pole is represented by the left and far-left forces, MORENA and PT together with the centre-right Green Party. The opposition is formed by the centre-right PAN and the centrist PRI, while as a third way, Movimiento Ciudadano tries to position itself as an alternative to both alliances. The Mexican political scheme is anathema to a hegemony emanating from MORENA. The opposition of the PAN and the PRI lack a popular leadership to counterbalance it, and Movimiento Ciudadano runs the risk of suffering the same fate as Ciudadanos in Spain if it opts for a grab-and-block type manoeuvre.

These cases should serve as dire warnings to all democracies. Without a centrist middle ground - whether through individuals or a party - societies are condemned to political trench warfare.