Can the Far-Right Succeed in Germany?

Only 9 years ago, the German response to the migration crisis facing Europe was hailed as remarkable, a true testament to the open border policies the EU and Merkel were so fond of. As the rest of Europe placed restrictions on people crossing the border, Germany opened their doors to over one million people. The ‘Welcome Culture’ became apparent as Germans across the country largely supported this action as they welcomed refugees with open arms. Federal elections have reflected this largely pro-immigration, socially liberal point of view with Alternative für Deutschland performing worse in the 2021 election compared to 2017, losing 11 seats. Now in 2024 this welcome culture has seemed to ebb as the far-right in Germany, the AFD, gain traction with voters. Suddenly Germans want less immigration, but the AFDs approach to immigration is not the only thing that is attracting voters. Their small government argument, tough stance on law and order, the complete right-wing package is now in high demand amongst millions of Germans. 

This far right surge in popularity is touted as dangerous and a major threat to not only Germany but Europe. Whilst it may well develop into a threat, currently the far right’s rise in Germany is only a short-term trend not a long-term threat in German politics. Over the previous nine years, inflation has rocketed to extreme levels of 8.12% in 2022, GDP per capita and real time economic growth has stagnated. Energy prices have also risen to incredible highs. Simply put, the cost of living has become a kingmaking issue. Ultimately Germany, similar to the rest of Europe and the world, has experienced a turbulent time of late. The geopolitical environment hasn’t been this hostile and uncertain since the beginning of the 21st century. The AFDs growth can be understood as a reaction to these challenging times. The far right in Germany is the perfect materialisation of reactionary politics. Germans feel that their government is failing them and constant inaction by a Reichstag, which is in itself entirely impotent, is fostering a fevered demand for change. 

That is the key word in the discussion around contemporary German politics: ‘Change.’ Germans want change and that is what the AFD symbolises. A complete shift in attitude and approach to the current establishment. In many ways it is comparable to various other populist surges around the world, such as those inflicting themselves upon everywhere from America to Italy. Change can present itself in alternative forms, but not a single party or view is further removed from the German establishment than the far-right, that is why people are flocking towards the extremist clutches of the AFD. However, does this mean ordinary Germans truly sympathise with the aims, or are they utilising the AFDs pariah status as a vessel for attention and ‘yes change’ that they want to see from the centre in Berlin? Is it feasible that a country’s culture so rapidly transforms from one of warm embrace to one of exclusion and atomisation? I am not convinced.

Far-right success is intimately related to cultural positions of nations, and I do not believe Germany’s culture is one that supports the far right. Unlike in the rest of Europe the far-right is not deeply rooted in Germany’s political establishment. Influential religious ties and institutions in nations like Italy and Poland create a cultural foundation for socially conservative views to be widely supported. Britian has an unhealthy obsession with tradition, which allows the far right to perpetuate an idea of guarding British history and culture. The old Eastern bloc was shrouded in communist darkness for decades and since their liberation have resolved to never go back, a shared oppression forced upon millions by the far-left has created the perfect environment for a cultural neglect of politics, founded on fear. This may be the case in what was formerly East Germany, where the far-right’s stronghold is in Germany, but apart from that cultural factor, Germany does not have the correct cultural environment to fertilise a successful far-right movement. The AFDs surge is the embodiment of a reactionary response to uncertain times, not an organic, well-grounded movement. 

The cultural foundation is nevertheless not an indispensable requirement for the far-right’s success. We have just witnessed a historic election result in Austria, and the far-right has grown in other nations such as Sweden and Norway. Despite the growth in those nations, widespread success for the far-right is still a very distant possibility, and that is because the societal fabric simply does not mesh with the far-right. Determining the long-term threat of the far-right is a difficult process, but what is pivotal is that the factors that will allow for a retention of the recent growth in support is extant. Economic factors, like a stagnating economy, will pass in robust states such as Germany, the standard of living will improve, and therefore the desire for change will dissipate. Without the motivation for change, Germany does not have the cultural fabric ideal for the far-right. Its moment will pass with Germany’s economic woes. 

Just because Germany does not face a long-term threat from the far-right does not discount the threat presently glowering over the old continent. Their presence is felt throughout Europa and must not be underestimated. Instead, the threat from the far-right simply must be dissected nation-by-nation, as each nation and their culture is incomparable.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/PantheraLeo1359531

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