Can DOGE Reinvent the Federal Government?
Amidst the turbulence of the early days of the second Trump administration, a new organisation was founded in the US government: The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE for short.
Headed up by billionaire-turned-politician Elon Musk, the new organisation has one clear goal – “to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity”. Furthermore, DOGE comes with a built-in self-destruct mechanism, terminating itself on the 4th of July 2026, giving it eighteen months to succeed.
Overarchingly, then, this is the question: can Musk succeed?
But underpinning this are several other questions:
Will Musk go too far and damage the fibres of government?
Will Musk not go far enough and fail to complete DOGE’s objective?
Can Musk commit to effective execution of DOGE’s mission?
Musk is, at his core, a businessman, rather than a politician, and this will be reflected in his DOGE strategy. The multi-billionaire mogul is on track to become the world’s first trillionaire as early as 2027, largely from his ownership of well-known companies including Tesla, SpaceX and X (formerly twitter). His business philosophy revolves around relentless efficiency, innovation, and cost reduction, principles that he applies across his ventures. At SpaceX, he has revolutionised the aerospace industry with reusable rockets, as well as drastically lowering the cost of space travel by keeping 85% of the manufacturing process in-house. Similarly, Tesla's success is driven by its vertically integrated production model, with gigafactories designed to streamline battery and vehicle production, while also reducing reliance on third-party suppliers. Musk’s approach, which blends innovative technology with a no-nonsense focus on lowering costs, is likely to guide his strategy for DOGE, ensuring that every decision is focused on maximising value and pushing boundaries.
Musk’s business-driven mindset could therefore work in DOGE's favour, as he’s proven adept at streamlining operations and driving efficiency. Additionally, his ferocious approach to management has been a part of his success. Already, he has subjected departments under his purview to his famous “what did you get done this week?” email to pile the pressure on federal employees, a replica of his communications with the former Twitter CEO, Parag Agrawal, before Musk bought the company in 2022. A heavy-handed approach, the case can be made both ways as to whether this will be effective with public sector workers.
On the topic of Musk’s other business successes, his commitments to these companies are perhaps one of the biggest obstacles that DOGE will face. Running any government department is a lot of work, let alone a newly created one with a short-term mandate. Combining this with running several major companies will leave Musk with little time. This may lead to substantial pressure from investors and shareholders, who feel that Musk is focused on the wrong things.
Early indications of these potential conflicts were evident in March 2025, when the share price of Tesla plummeted due to a combination of slumping sales, fears over the impact of tariffs, and the possibility of recession in the US, which Trump refused to rule out on the 10th of March, stating that he hates to “predict things like that”. By the time the markets closed on the 10th of March, Tesla’s share price was down 18% on its close on Friday the 7th of March, and almost 48% below its value on the date of Trump’s inauguration, when DOGE was created by Executive Order.
Amidst these damaging few days in March, Musk gave an interview in which he admitted he was having “great difficulty” managing several businesses alongside DOGE.
Unfortunately for Musk, this is unlikely to appease shareholders. Some of Tesla’s major institutional shareholders like Vanguard, Blackrock, and State Street hold tens of billions of dollars worth of shares in the company, and frankly, shareholders like these are unlikely to be particularly interested in Musk’s projects within government, and will start to demand answers if the company’s performance does not improve.
Thus, at some point, it is likely that Musk will have to make choices as to where to invest his time; which way he chooses to go is another question.
Coupled with Musk’s numerous other commitments, already unhelpful for a new and substantial operation, it’s also worth noting that DOGE is an incredibly small department within the US government. Around a month ago, Business Insider reported that around 30 people were employed by the department, growing to around 100 currently, and aiming “to get to 200”. Put into context, this small cohort is spread across a federal government that employs some three million people and spent around $6.75 trillion in 2024. DOGE, therefore, feels incredibly lean in comparison to the scale of the task it’s dealing with, which leaves extraordinarily little room for error in the 18-month process.
Holistically, DOGE is an interesting initiative and will certainly find ways to cut government spending. However, the short remit before its self-destruction is likely to be a substantial issue, in that it pressurises rapid and expansive cutting, something which is already in Elon Musk’s nature.
Coupled with this, DOGE is likely to find issues in simply having too much to do and not the capacity or capabilities to do it. With a small workforce relative to the task at hand, which is unlikely to change, and a department head who is likely to become distracted by any number of the other major roles he holds, there is a serious risk that, once DOGE is no longer a new and novel project, it becomes lost, hurtling towards its self-destruction date.
Musk has one chance to get this right: DOGE’s mandate cannot be refreshed and would be a major policy failure for the administration to bear across the remainder of Trump’s second term in office.
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