Brussels or Moscow? Moldova's Defining Moment

The imminent Moldovan presidential election and referendum on membership of the European Union, set for this Sunday (20 October), could be one of the most consequential political events in the country’s post-independence history. These dual votes will decide Moldova’s geopolitical and cultural trajectory at a time where the nation stands torn between the pull of European integration and Russian influence. 

It is indisputable that Moldova is at a crossroads. The EU referendum is more than just a question of membership; it is an existential choice for the nation’s future. A “Yes” vote would constitutionally enshrine Moldova’s commitment to European integration, seen as a backstop to any future, potentially pro-Russian government, undoing the effort and investment that has gone into preparing Moldova for accession to the European Union. A “No” vote would embolden the Kremlin’s claims that Moldova belongs firmly within its sphere of influence, potentially emboldening the separatist governments of Transnistria and Gagauzia. 

Equally pivotal, the presidential election will be an assessment of President Maia Sandu’s first term, in which she has pursued alignment with Europe, promised a wave of anti-corruption measures, and the removal of Russian coercive influence. Christina Gherasimov, the deputy prime minister of Moldova, dubbed the elections as “historic” in what will probably be “the most important [decision] since [Moldova] gained independence from the Soviet Union.” It cannot be understated how crucial both votes are in either cementing Moldova’s westward orientation or repositioning the country within Russia’s bailiwick. 

Moscow’s influence and interest looms large over these votes. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has intensified its efforts to destabilise Moldova, using what officials have described as an “unprecedented onslaught” of hybrid disinformation tactics. These include, but are not limited to, disinformation campaigns, psychological warfare, vote-buying, and the sophisticated financing of pro-Russian political actors, such as Ilan Shor. In 2023 alone, Russia illegally funnelled $55 million into Moldova, approximately 0.5% of Moldova’s GDP, to influence elections through vote buying. Moscow’s attempts to tie Moldova’s European aspirations to fears of war and societal instability, particularly by invoking divisions over the ongoing Ukrainian war, are central to its strategy to undermine the upcoming votes to ensure Chisinau remains within its sphere of influence. 

The unrecognised de facto state of Transnistria, whose government aligns with Moscow and where Russia maintains a military ‘peacekeeping’ presence, complicates Moldova’s European accession process significantly. Since 1991, Transnistria has existed as a ‘separatist’ state within Moldova’s internationally recognised borders, yet has distinct historical and contemporary differences from Moldova proper, in culture, politics, and society. Officials in the Transnistrian capital of Tiraspol have called for their own referendum which is likely to reinforce its claims to independence, or reiterate desires for Russian annexation, in the face of rejecting closer relations with the EU. 

Transnistria also exists in an unsettled frozen conflict, with political settlement so far unforthcoming in the decades since the end of the Transnistria War in 1992. There are credible fears that if a “Yes” vote was to be returned, Moscow could easily and willingly utilise its actors, both Russian and Transnistrian, in Tiraspol to stifle, disrupt, and disintegrate a Europeanised Moldovan trajectory.

However, it is important to note that Moscow has no interest in annexing Transnistria outright, as has been seen in rejected annexation requests over the years. For the Kremlin, Transnistria is a useful geopolitical proxy through which it can, and does, exert coercive influence over Moldova, in part to prevent such Europeanisation. Moscow readily exploits the unrequited affinity between both the Transnistrian elites and the general population towards Russia, for these very purposes. The situation poses a significant challenge to any future EU membership for Chisinau, for Brussels remains exceedingly wary of integrating any country with unresolved territorial conflicts, least of all with Russia itself. 

A “Yes” vote in the upcoming referendum would enshrine the goal of European Union membership within the Moldovan constitution, essentially locking Chisinau into its European trajectory. It would place pressure on Brussels to expedite Moldova’s accession, not least insofar as to receive a return on its very heavy investment into the country since last year. For many Moldovans, this is an opportunity to ensure political stability, economic growth, and freedom from Russia’s nefarious influence that has only its own interests at heart. 

Conversely, a “No” vote would be a devastating blow to Sandu’s government and could signify a shift back into the Russian sphere of influence for Moldova. It would embolden pro-Russian factions within the country, not just in Transnistria but also in the autonomous region of Gagauzia, likely increasing political instability, leaving Moldova vulnerable to greater influence from Moscow. It is no surprise that Moscow has actively encouraged division between Gagauzia and Chisinau since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A vote for European membership could trigger the creation of Moldova's second separatist state. 

Notwithstanding, a democratic rejection of European integration would demonstrate a cultural and political continuity between Moldova and Russia, one often overlooked in Western discourse. By no means is European alignment a universally desired outcome for many Moldovans, particularly older generations with more nostalgic memories of the Soviet Union.

It is important, however, to note that the impact of Russian influence is hard to decipher and actors on all sides, irrespective of the result, must be cautious not to disregard the results, whatever the outcome - a move that could undo decades of progress in democratisation in a country that already has exceedingly low levels of trust in politicians and governance through historically endemic bribery, embezzlement, and corruption. Either way, expect the results to be contested. 

This referendum is seismic. For the duration of Moldova’s post-independence history, there has been continuous debate over whether it envisions a future integrated within the European framework, or one closely aligned with its former metropole in Russia. Chisinau has extensively relied on Russian energy and, being one of Europe’s poorest nations, remains incredibly vulnerable to external influences. The European Union has been engaged in widespread funding and investment of Moldova since 2023; Brussels will be acutely monitoring the situation to ensure it cements a return on its billions of euros worth of investment through integrating Moldova into the European bloc. 

The outcome of both the presidential election and the referendum on Sunday is too close to call. Pro-European sentiment is strong, but has been amplified by the sitting government who, for all intents and purposes, control the national narrative. Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics will no doubt have an impact, but the deep-rooted affinity of some Moldovans to Russia and the East cannot be overlooked. Sunday’s elections are high-stakes, but equally unpredictable. As Moldova’s future hangs in the balance, at a crossroads between Moscow and Brussels, Sunday’s vote will have ramifications felt in Moldova and beyond for years to come. 

Image: Etienne Ansotte/European Union

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