As the global balance of power continues to shift at lightning speed in 2024, the recent BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, presents another worthy point of reflection for analysing the emerging multipolar landscape.
The current global hegemon, the US, is continuing airstrikes in Yemen without congressional approval. At the same time, it is facilitating Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon and Gaza, sending hundreds of billions of dollars in aid and weapons to Ukraine in a proxy war with Russia, and conducting naval exercises with regional allies in the South China Sea. One might draw the conclusion that the credibility the US once had in promoting a“rules-based international order” is now in jeopardy. Without this credibility, its actions may appear tyrannical to observer nations, which is accelerating a shift in the balance of power.
The economic warfare of US sanctions compounds this issue, as they are currently in place against one-third of the nations on earth. In each instance, the US claims it is only “responding to aggression,” whether from Russia, China, Iran or Palestine. However, rather than pursuing de-escalation and stability, its actions are highly inflammatory in each theatre. Columbia professor Adam Tooze recognises this peculiar regression in US foreign policy by stating, “While insisting that it supports the rules-based order, what we are witnessing is something closer to a revival of the ruinous neoconservative ambition of the 1990s and 2000s."
For the most part, this is the crux of intensified anti-US sentiment from the Global South: Washington’s own violations of the rules-based order they claim to be shepherding. For BRICS members, it must be puzzling to see the US criticise, sanction, and alienate China and Russia from the global economy for purported war crimes or human rights violations while Washington shields the Israeli government from ICC prosecution amid their campaign of ethnic cleansing.
Beyond security competition, the ever-expanding US sanctions regime has animated international appetite for a BRICS-type organisation. Not only are sanctions failing to prevent Russian oil from reaching European shores, but instead, as the theory of balance of power politics would suggest, they have resulted in stronger alliances and increased economic interdependence between Russia, India, China, Iran, and others. Critics of BRICS often point to internal conflicts, such as the bitter Himalayan border dispute between China and India, as an insurmountable issue that prevents a viable BRICS alliance. Well, in the lead-up to the summit, China and India struck a historic deal to withdraw troops from the area and mutually patrol the frontier. This paved the way for the first formal talks between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in five years. India is still indeed allied with the US, especially in terms of security cooperation. However, this rapprochement between the two nuclear powers is a sign that the leaders of these powerful nations understand that their cooperation through BRICS can define the new multipolar landscape, and this far outweighs concerns over territorial disputes.
Exactly how BRICS policies will disrupt the status quo of US hegemony is yet to be seen. Russia was reportedly set to propose a multi-currency system, the BRICS Cross Border Payment Initiative (BCBPI), using BRICS member states’ national currencies instead of the US dollar to conduct trade. This would assist countries in circumnavigating the burden of US sanctions. The outlook of the BCBPI may be inauspicious. Nevertheless, even if you are dubious about a BRICS alternative to the current parameters of international trade and finance, it is no longer 2001. The unipolar era is over, and these nations are unifying to push back against US hegemony in a substantive way. It doesn’t seem wise to ignore or exhibit disdain for this development.
In fact, it is precisely this increased collaboration between BRICS nations that is reshaping global alliances, regardless of its efficacy in diminishing Western financial hegemony. Following a meeting between Russian President Putin and Iranian President Pezeshkian in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on October 11th, the degree of economic integration between Russia and Iran was elucidated. Iranian Central Bank Governor Farzin said that agreements were reached with Russia on connecting card networks and monetary cooperation, with Iran aiming to become a member of the BRICS New Development Bank.
Pakistan has also forged stronger ties with China and Russia via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The strategic compatibility of these nuclear-armed nations is becoming increasingly evident. Not only do they have mutual interests in energy and regional stability, but the increased diplomatic collaboration will provide notable security benefits for Russia, whereby Pakistan plays a crucial role in the suppression of ISIS in the Central Asian Republics. Russia has been trying to curtail jihadist insurgencies in Central Asia for decades, and close ties to Islamabad will make that possible without using their own military force or sinking costs into a protracted conflict. Through diplomatic manoeuvring, Russia is mitigating security risks in its region with help from fellow BRICS member China and aspiring member Pakistan.
These emerging alliances should not come as a surprise either. In June of this year, Pakistani Defence Minister Khwaja Asif explained his distrust of Washington, aptly echoing the consensus among BRICS nations when saying the US is “the country that spent the 20th century overthrowing democratically elected governments and is currently facilitating the Palestinian genocide.” The degree to which US foreign policy has precipitated the formation of these alliances cannot be overstated.
Perhaps the millennia-old dynamics outlined in balance of power logic need not be played out. Maybe the US can adopt more understanding positions towards these nations and avoid hypocritical interventionism while dictating how others can act. However, considering the unwavering commitment to this kind of approach to international affairs in Washington for decades, this is unlikely. Instead, an era of true multilateralism is unfolding before our eyes in an almost prophetic way, with seemingly no forces great enough to redirect the trajectory of these seismic shifts.
Image: Wikimedia Commons/The Presidential Press and Information Office of Azerbaijan
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