You could hear the sighs of relief from the Federal Chancellery halfway across the continent. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) edged out the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Brandenburg’s state elections on Sunday, offering German Chancellor Olaf Scholz a fleeting reprieve from political oblivion. However, there were no champagne corks popping in Berlin. A 2% margin of victory is a dismal showing for the Social Democrats in an eastern state once seen as the party’s heartland.
While any defeat for the far-right is one to be celebrated, in many ways this result represents the worst of all worlds for Germany. Hardly a triumph for democracy over political extremism, but just enough to save the hapless Scholz’s bacon. The rise of the AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht’s far-left Alliance is not an inevitable consequence of irreconcilable rifts between East and West, nor the natural polarisation of society. Remember, the last federal election in 2021 saw the political extremes lose significant ground. Allowing them to thrive once again is a direct result of Germany’s shambolic governance under Scholz.
The Brandenburg result is not a vindication of Scholz’s leadership but a damning indictment of his government’s failure to lead. His coalition - an uneasy alliance with the Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) - has been paralysed by infighting, unable to offer coherent solutions to the pressing issues facing the country. From soaring energy prices to stagnant economic growth and rising discontent over immigration, the government has lurched from crisis to crisis. Scholz’s talent for unforced errors leaves him inexorably on the back foot. This is not the first time the Chancellor has found himself buffeted by populist winds. Recent elections in Saxony and Thuringia saw similar surges for both the far-right and the far-left. Each time, Scholz has responded with half-measures and haphazard policy pivots that neither satisfy the electorate nor stem the tide of discontent.
Even now, the Chancellor’s response to the rise of the AfD has been depressingly predictable. Faced with mounting public anger over immigration, his government introduced border checks - an act of political theatre that does little to address the underlying issues. These temporary measures, designed to placate voters, have only reinforced the impression of a government that is reactive, not proactive; Scholz’s government continues to tinker at the edges while Germany’s political consensus crumbles.
Scholz’s most grievous error, though, is his refusal to recognise that the SPD is losing the battle for the soul of the country, with profound implications for the durability of German democracy. The Social Democrats are bleeding support to every party willing to offer up a vision for the future, no matter how authoritarian. The Greens and the FDP might feel hard done by, though they have not helped matters. Scrapping nuclear power - a core Green priority - has resulted in a pivot to fossil fuels and requires expensive infrastructure commitments to replace the lost energy capacity. The FDP, meanwhile, has been the model of fiscal inflexibility at a time when the country’s stagnant economy urges new thinking.
We are now just one year away from the next federal election, and for the coalition, prospects are grim. Polls put the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) in pole position, but the AfD is second on 19%. The SPD has plummeted to just 14%, with the Greens and the far-left on 10% each. The FDP languishes on a mere 4% of the vote. The CDU may represent the change Germany needs, but not if they are forced into a coalition with the political extremes. With the coalition’s support sinking fast, it is not hard to imagine a future where the far-right and far-left take second and third position in the Bundestag. Their influence on government would be malign - disastrous for liberalism, the Western security alliance - and, if German domestic intelligence is to be believed, disastrous for democracy itself.
The situation is dire but not irreversible. The SPD cannot win the next election, but if Scholz were to go, there remains a chance to at least halt the slide towards the extremes. The popular Defence Minister Boris Pistorius is touted as an alternative for the top job. Of course, the mechanisms for removing a sitting Chancellor are cumbersome; realistically, Scholz would have to depart willingly. However, he should seriously consider his position. His continued leadership is a threat not just to the political future of the SPD but to Germany as a whole. Every day he stays in office he legitimises the narrative of a failing elite clinging to power, a narrative extremists are already exploiting.
For now, Germany is stuck in a vicious cycle of stagnation and despair. The coalition has failed to address the challenges of the day and, in doing so, has emboldened the forces it wants to keep from power. Brandenburg may have spared the Chancellor for now, but it is a pyrrhic victory. The status quo could lead to the collapse of the political centre, and a drift towards authoritarianism that may shatter Germany’s post-war prestige. For the sake of democracy, Scholz must go.
Image: Wikimedia Commons/Michael Lucan
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