As the year draws to a close, we look upon an almost unrecognisable Europe. From the collapse of the tricolour government of Olaf Scholz in Germany, to a general election in Ireland seeing Sinn Fein edge again closer to power, to Michel Barnier’s short period of less than three months as Prime Minister of France. These are the events I would like to reflect on by way of forecasting what lies in the year ahead for Europe.
Let's start by analysing the failure of Germany's tripartite regime, the so-called traffic light coalition, made up of the Social Democrats (red), the Greens and the Liberals (yellow). This faltering collapse comes after three years of complicated government. The Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced at the beginning of November that the Liberal Christian Linder would step down as finance minister, which led to his party’s withdrawal from the coalition. The degeneration to minority government swiftly laid the groundwork for general elections at the beginning of 2025. The Social Democrats' tenure was definitely short-lived, particularly given they had not governed since the administration of Gerhard Schröder (1998-2005). It seems that this political lethargy may be unshakeable, along with the dissatisfaction of the citizens of Germany.
The outlook for next year's elections is rather gloomy, given that support for both the far-right AfD and the far-left BSW has risen precipitously. Ungovernability seems to be a likely scenario unless, after these elections, the centre-left Social Democrats and the centre-right Christian Democrats agree to form another unitary government like Angela Merkel's. Without a figure who is equal to Merkel in terms of unoffensive and pragmatic leadership, it will be very difficult to achieve a conciliation that excludes the burgeoning extremes. These will be fascinating and instructive elections to follow when they take place early next year.
In the Irish parliamentary elections held on 29 November, the centre-right party Fianna Fáil managed to position itself as the party with the most votes after 13 years without that honour. Its ideological counterpart, Fine Gael, placed second in votes but third in seats. They suffered from the poor public image of their candidate, Taoiseach Simon Harris, caused in part by a viral confrontation with a disability care worker, for which he apologised to no avail. It is likely that, as in the past, these two will form a coalition in which they will alternate power throughout their mandate. Though two seats from a majority, they will most probably opt for the support of either an agglomeration of independents or the Green Party again. The centre-left Republican party Sinn Fein came second in seats, strengthening since the 2020 election. If there is one thing that these elections suggest, it is that within Ireland, republican sentiment remains simultaneously the engine of Sinn Fein’s destabalising success and what spurs the two traditional parties to pact after pact.
Last but not least, Michel Barnier's brief tenure as Prime Minister of France is a case in point. His term ended prematurely due to a vote of no confidence proposed by the left-wing bloc, New Popular Front, and supported by the far-right National Rally. This marked the first successful vote of no confidence since 1962. Things are further complicated by the fact that legislative elections cannot be called until at least a year has passed after the previous elections. President Emmanuel Macron had already called for early legislative elections in June of this year after the poor results of his centrist party, Renaissance, in the European elections. In short, Macron's government is intractably bogged down, with only the support of other centrist minority forces and the centre-right Republicans, the political party to which Barnier belongs. There will be no clear and stable outlook for the position of Prime Minister until the next election, snap or general. Macron's legacy similarly hangs in the balance as both forces at the extremes of the political poles want to see his presidency fall before its natural end in 2027.
The far right and, in some cases, the far left are growing rapidly in Europe, trends elaborated in this piece which show little sign of abating. If scenarios similar to those mentioned in this text are playing out in your country, what do you think the electoral outcomes will be? Best of luck in 2025.
Image: Wikimedia Commons/European Commission (Christophe Licoppe)
No image changes made.
Comentarios