Adam McCartan
2024 is shaping up to be a huge year for politics. In the US, the nation braces for
the upcoming presidential election, as it stands a house divided between an ever
increasing populist and conservative right and a liberal left. Here in the UK, we
are no strangers to electoral and political turmoil (just ask the last three prime
ministers!) and 2024 promises to be no different with the next general election
expected for the autumn.
The question, therefore, is on what landscape shall the next general election be
fought? In which arena’s shall Keir Starmer, Rishi Sunak and others be battling
it out to gain that ever-coveted parliamentary majority? We will attempt to
explain just that, looking at what the landscape is beginning to look like.
The world of 2023 is incredibly different to the one of 2019. Globally, the world
has been through a pandemic, and Europe once again has seen the horrors of
war return to its shores.
So, it is hard exactly to predict what 2024 will
precisely bring, however, that being said, there are key areas over which the
next general election shall be fought: cost of living, inflation,
migration, the NHS. Also, up for judgement is the Conservative record in
government (which in my opinion is a legacy of shambolic chaos).
Let’s start with the area that is of most concern to everyone. Since the end of
the pandemic, in 2021, we have all felt things becoming more financially tight,
our money not going as far as it used to, and our rent or mortgage payments
become harder to pay. Well, this is the cost-of-living crisis. In layman’s terms
(which for me is all I understand when it comes to economics) it is a result of
the people and household’s ‘real’ income (income after taxes and benefits)
falling below the rate of inflation.
As of April 2023, inflation for the UK currently stands at a whopping 8.7%,
standing above other comparable
economies. This inflation has had a huge impact on families and households
across the UK. For example, the prices of whole milk and pasta have gone up
26% , while according to the ONS (Office of national statistics) 2 in 5 adults
have reported “finding it very or somewhat difficult to afford”. While the
current government under Rishi Sunak has attempted to mitigate the worst of
the current crisis, households continue to feel the pinch. Labour, the SNP, and
the Liberal Democrats have all taken to referring to this as the “Tory-made cost
of living crisis”. Labour’s website on the topic leads with bullet points on how
the Conservative’s have caused it, not least stating “15 Tory tax rises have led
to the highest tax burden in 70 years”.
It is clear this will be one of the huge issues for the coming election.
For the Conservatives, their only hope of
rebuttal is to regain their mantle as the party of fiscal responsibility that was so
shattered by Liz Truss’ disastrous libertarian experiment. Under Sunak, and his
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, they party has returned to austerity as the orthodox
in hopes of curbing inflation to soften the crisis. Whether this will work come
polling day remains to be seen.
Next up on the list is the ever-present issue of migration. Among Conservative
voters the issue remains one of the top priorities with POLITICO reporting it as
their second-biggest concern. Among wider voters however the issue remains
more controversial, in a recent poll by PublicFirst it found that when asked
“Which of the following specific challenges do you think the Government
should take most seriously?” it came 4th at 26% except among Conservative and
Reform UK voters where it came in at 41% and 60% respectively. So then why
is migration a central issue for this election if its not in the top 3 issues for the
government to focus on? Well simply put it always was, and always probably
will be. It was one of the driving factors behind the Brexit referendum (“take
back control”) and since the referendum and leaving the EU, and since
consecutive Conservative governments.
Despite the tough rhetoric they have failed to reduce migration significantly,
with the ONS showing that last year
Britain saw a net migration of 606,000 people, with the ONS also stating that 1
in 12 of these people were asylum seekers. Sensing an opportunity to gain
disenfranchised Conservative voters in more Brexit supporting areas, Labour
leader Keir Starmer has repeatedly attacked the government on this issue during PMQs.
While Labour voters themselves don’t necessarily find migration
to be a key issue, if Labour hope to win a majority they will need to capture
traditional Tory voters, with the best way to do this so far presenting itself in
Migration.
Next on our list is the state of the NHS. One of the wonders of being British,
and one of the core institutions in British life is the National Health Service. The
first of its kind in the world, the NHS has provided since its inception free
healthcare upon request, and has been paid for through both incomes tax and
national insurance contribution. When asked by the ONS what they thought
was the most important issues facing the UK today, 83% of respondents
answered the NHS. This is nothing knew. The quality of healthcare in a given
country is always a matter of concern for voters, look at the US where despite
its private insurance-based system, voters still pay great attention to what
politicians say about healthcare (see Obamacare).
Here in the UK, all major
parties have included the state of the NHS in their plans and promises for the
coming election. The Tories have promised to cut waiting times and previously
promised to build 40 new hospitals. It was revealed however that the current
government has downgraded the promise on new hospitals to renovations of
existing hospitals, while waiting times and the numbers of people on waiting
lists have continued to rise since they entered office. Labour
as well has made the NHS one of their ‘5 missions for a better Britain’,
promising to build a better NHS (a vague statement but understandable pre-
manifesto launch). The issue of the NHS no doubt therefore will be, as usual, of
the key election issues in 2024.
Finally is the Tory record in government. The last 13 years has been, well to put
it mildly, shambolic. I think it’s hard for anyone to realistically argue that the
last nearly decade and a half of Tory government has been strong or stable.
Inside that time we have had 5 Conservative Prime Ministers (Cameron, May,
Johnson, Truss, Sunak). The legacy of these PM’s is one of continuous turmoil
and, after Johnson, of sleaze. The Tory party under Johnson and beyond has
been rocked by several high profile scandals and resignations, with most
recently Johnson being found to have willfully mislead Parliament.
There’s absolutely no doubt as to if the opposition parties will use this in their
campaign, in fact we already have seen it in the May 4th Local elections, in
which the Tories lost a whopping 1000 seats! Further to this obvious
indictment of the Conservative party are the polling figures, in which the Tories
have been consistently 14 points behind Labour, due to cost of living, Tory
sleaze, ‘Partygate’ and much more all bringing down public opinion in the
Conservative Party.
So where does all this leave us lowly voters then? Well as usual it leaves us the
important job of evaluating the claims of these various parties on the issues
outlined above. The 2024 election campaign is probably going be highly
eventful, and certainly will be highly important. Will the Conservative
monopoly on the reigns of government be broken and Labour returned from
the wilderness of opposition, or will Keir Starmer’s Labour face the same story
of defeat? Only time, and the voters, will tell.
Image: Rishi Sunak
Comments