Transnistria's secessionist project is in structural decline. Russian patronage has thinned and public services have deteriorated. The Sheriff conglomerate, the dominant economic force in the region, has reoriented toward European markets in ways that sit uneasily alongside Moscow's strategic preferences. Chișinău, meanwhile, has been methodically exploiting this opening, using customs duties, tax harmonisation, and a nascent reintegration blueprint to draw Transnistria incre